Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Internet searches

Do give the Nobel prize to Yahoo! research scientist David Pennock. — Santo Subito! [*]

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 14, 2008 — 6 Comments

He and his co-authors were the first to publish about the fact that flu-related searches on the Web are precise predictors of the upcoming influenza outbreaks.
Congrats.
Best wishes for the rest of their scientific career.
[*] “Make him a Saint, now!”, in Italian.

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Science, The Internet | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Predict Google’s market share (extracting early information from primary sources), and become rich —maybe (or maybe not).

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 2, 2008 — Leave a Comment

As I said previously, I’m in favor of listing the URLs of the advanced indicators on the prediction market pages. Prediction markets with better advanced indicators (as it is the case in political elections and finance) should be proven to be more liquid than markets with poor ones.
That said, I love David Pennock’s prediction markets:
A [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , ,

Search engine futures!

Written by David Pennock on January 25, 2008 — 17 Comments

Cross posted from Oddhead Blog.
I am happy to report that on my suggestion intrade has listed futures contracts for 2008 search engine market share.
Here is how they work:
A contract will expire according to the percentage share of internet searches conducted in the United States in 2008. For example, if 53.5% of searches conducted in the [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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