Tag Archives: internal prediction markets
Hyping enterprise prediction markets in Mashable
Matt Fogarty of CrowdCast:
Business leaders rely on metrics and data to inform decisions around new products and opportunities, but traditional forecasting methods suffer from bias and lack of first-hand information. That’s why business forecasting is an ideal target for the application of crowd wisdom. While bets are made anonymously, some prediction market software applications [...]
CrowdCast is an enterprise software platform that helps companies make better forecasts by tapping the knowledge stored in their employees.
Interview
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CrowdCast CEO Mat Fogarty on how his company is helping businesses make better-informed decisions [VIDEO]
Good questions, good answers:
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External Links:
- CrowdCast
- CFO Prediction Market
- Matt Fogarty’s twitter – [Midas Oracle's twitter]
Previously:
- CrowdCast = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts
- CrowdCast = market mechanism = binary spreads with [...]
Common pitfalls of enterprise prediction markets: participants who lack relevant information, too few participants, and too little trading.
GOAL:
“Prediction markets seek information aggregation from a large group of diverse individuals by encouraging active participation.“
REALITY CHECK:
“The biggest challenge is getting people in the company to be active” [].
Implementing a prediction market within a company means changing the way information flows by widening the people in the know and accepting to be occasionally second-guessed by the market.
“Some corporate cultures aren’t ready to accept that yet.”
Any sane boss should fire an employee who is betting at work.
Assessing the usefulness of enterprise prediction markets
Do you need to have experience in running an enterprise prediction exchange in order to assess the pertinence of enterprise prediction markets?
Paul Hewitt:
Hi Jed…
As for qualifications, I have been making business decisions for almost 30 years. I am a chartered accountant and a business owner. Starting in university and continuing to this day, I have [...]
The truth about CrowdClarity’s extraordinary predictive power (which impresses Jed Christiansen so much)
Paul Hewitt:
At first blush, it appears that we finally have a bona fide prediction market success! If we’re going to celebrate, I’d suggest Prosecco, not Champagne, however.
There are a number of reasons to be cautious. These represent only a couple of markets. We don’t know why Urban Science people appear to be [...]
Finally, a positive corporate prediction market case study… —well, according to Jed Christiansen
Jed Christiansen:
To recap, the prediction market beat the official GM forecast (made at the beginning of the month) easily, which isn’t hugely surprising considering the myopic nature of internal forecasting. But the prediction market also beat the Edmunds.com forecast. This is particularly interesting, as Edmunds would have had the opportunity to review almost the entire [...]
Spigit Prediction Markets
Recently, IBM launched the SmarterCities Predictive Idea Markets, powered by Spigit. The markets are set up to poll crowd sentiment on different, non-exclusive outcomes to major questions facing cities over the next 40 years.
As has been pointed out here, here and here, the SmarterCities site is not a prediction market at all. It is an [...]
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