Prediction Markets = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Tag Archives: internal prediction markets

Dawn Tevekelian Keller wants to convince your boss to adopt enterprise prediction markets.

Dawn Tevekelian Keller (formerly at Best Buy) does not write for Robin Hanson et al.:
This blog is not geared toward the existing Prediction Market intelligentsia. While I would be honored to have fellow enthusiasts read and critique this blog, I’m not writing this for them, specifically.
I’m writing for a general business audience, decision makers in [...]

CrowdCast = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

The fine people at CrowdCast (Mat Fogarty and Leslie Fine) are finally out today with their brand-new, no-trading, collective forecasting mechanism. The purpose is to aggregate information across one organization so as to generate the most objective business forecasts. The readers of Midas Oracle are well aware of the (relative) performance of the prediction markets [...]

Go trading enterprise prediction markets… if you want to meet the boss.

Adam Siegel:
One incentive that doesn’t get much attention is granting “exclusive access” to traders. The most successful format we’ve seen of this is picking those who are regularly participating in the marketplace, i.e. “20 random traders with 20 or more trades” and inviting them to a roundtable with a (very) senior executive on a monthly [...]

Social networking tool Spigit goes enteprise prediction markets.

Spigit
Read & Write Web
Twitter

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Why reporting stuff about prediction markets means bugging the prediction market people till they spit the truth finally

If you have been a feed subscriber of Midas Oracle for a long time (we started in 2006 here, and in 2003 for CFM), you know that I act as a gadfly. But there is a reason for that. If I were a simple stenographer, re-publishing press releases (and making friends with the prediction market [...]

NewsFutures’s software and consulting on enterprise prediction markets

I am happy to run Emile Servan-Schreiber’s correction (well, correcting me ) on the fact that NewsFutures still provides EPM SaaS, since I love NewsFutures’s CDA technology as much as Chris Hibbert does. However, I maintain that providers of collective intelligence solutions for companies are turning their back to the trading technology, from [...]

Should you be bullish on enterprise prediction markets?

Robin Hanson:
There is now a prediction market industry, where I do a lot of consulting, most of which is to private companies.  Most of these are on prediction markets, but some are decision markets.
What Robin Hanson does not say to his gullible readers (mostly, young collegians who have no experience of real-life forecasting) is that:

When [...]

Are prediction markets useful to our global civilization?

Announcement from the Prediction Markets group at LinkedIn:
Hello dear members,
We all love prediction markets. We are [286] on this group. Please, do forward this e-mail to one or two of your friends who love the prediction markets, so they can join us.
http://www.linkedin.com/e/gis/152133
The issues that are up in the air, these days:
- Are prediction markets really [...]

Enterprise prediction markets have *no* benefits for businesses.

Paul Hewitt:
My review of the literature and case studies (that have been published) indicates that prediction markets have improved the accuracy of forecasts, but the improvements have not been great enough to encourage widespread (or even minimal) acceptance. Furthermore, these studies like to average their results over a number of markets, disguising the fact that [...]

TOTAL DESTRUCTION

Paul Hewitt asses a research paper by the Iowa Electronic Markets scholars… and what’s left is just a little stack of ashes.

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