Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Insurance

Is weather betting legal if you bundle it with auto leasing?

Pride Motors, a Boston area car dealer, is advertising the following special:
Lease a car before August 26, and if it’s above 96 degrees at Boston Logan Airport on Labor Day, they will make your first 12 lease payments for you (minimum 36 month lease term).
This reminds me a lot of Jordan Furniture’s “free furniture if [...]

Robert Shiller: Insurance, hedging, risk management, efficiency, etc.

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InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair and Betdaq should re-package prediction makets as insurance or contingent goods.

David Pennock gives innovation ideas to Sean Park and the other VCs… FOR FREE.

WeatherBill C.E.O. David Friedberg hopes to persuade [!?] the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (C.F.T.C.) to change the requirement that currently limits weather derivative traders to accredited investors with a minimum net worth of $1 million.

Hummmmmmmmm… Quite a bold ambition. I’m very surprised by his statement. Is he naive?

Via our chief economist Michael Giberson.
UPDATE: Did the CFTC relax its ECPs requirement for eBOTs?

RAND CORPORATION, the world’s most prestigious think tank, is a NewsFutures client.

NewsFutures’ clients:

The world’s largest steel maker.
CORNING
Display Technologies.

Japan’s largest advertising firm.

Voted “most innovative” pharmaceutical company in Fortune’s 2003 and 2004 rankings.

The US packaged foods giant.

Giant U.S. Pharmaceutical.

Leading provider of objective analysis and effective solutions.

One of the world’s leading providers of outsourcing and IT services.

Europe’s leader in corrugated packaging.

Germany’s global powerhouse in electrical engineering and electronics.

Texas [...]

What does the TradeSports/InTrade “split” really amount to?

TradeSports has been incorporated as a separate company in the Netherlands Antilles, while Intrade remains incorporated in Ireland, and they have split up the trading categories across the two websites. However, this looks sort of like a BetCRIS/BookMaker split, with both entities still owned by Trade Exchange Network Limited.
Telephones:
Intrade: 866-303-1929, +353-1-6200-365
TradeSports: 866-303-1927, [...]

Numeria CEO dislikes TradeSports’s real-money prediction markets. – REDUX

On the North Korea Missile scandal, Numeria CEO Peter Leitner wrote:
The debate has been passionate on both sides, with some asserting that TradeSports is cheating its members by ignoring the obvious, and failing to acknowledge that a small operating problem has mushroomed into a major public relations crisis; the other side asserts that TradeSports [...]

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