Tag Archives: information value

Toward Info Accounting In Competitive Forecasting

Posted on October 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Toward Info Accounting In Competitive Forecasting – PPT file – by Robin Hanson – 2008-10-15 An interesting set of slides —though it’s about the technicalities of value assessment, and not about the big picture.

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Business Administration, Consulting, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged competitive forecasting, decision-aid markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), information value, prediction markets, prediction value | 13 Comments

Prediction Market Definition —updated

Posted on October 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Definition – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, betting markets, definitions, event derivative, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasting mechanisms, future events, Information Aggregation, information value, objective probabilistic predictions, prediction accuracy, prediction market, prediction market definition, prediction market explainer, prediction markets, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, Robin Hanson, the future | 1 Comment

Information Value of Enterprise Prediction Markets

Posted on September 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: [I]nfo value [] is the added accuracy the markets provide relative to other mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining the markets, relative to the cost of other mechanisms. A highly … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Business Administration, Cases, Consulting, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Business, corporate prediction markets, decision management, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Google, information value, internal prediction markets, management, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

The concept of information value was not invented by Robin Hanson in the shower one morning for public release to the world via Midas Oracle.

Posted on February 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

[The title above is a joke based on Bo Cowgill's latest comment. To get his joke, you will have to read all the comments there, till the final one (at the time of writing).] Bo challenges me to publicize a … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Science | Tagged information value, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | 2 Comments

Tag Archives: information value

Toward Info Accounting In Competitive Forecasting

Prediction Market Definition —updated

Information Value of Enterprise Prediction Markets

The concept of information value was not invented by Robin Hanson in the shower one morning for public release to the world via Midas Oracle.

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