Tag Archives: IBM

Are IBM Smarter Cities prediction markets too smart for people?

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 27, 2009 — 39 Comments

IBM Smarter Cities prediction mechanisms
20 prediction lines
Only one socially generated prediction is over 50%.
UPDATE: The first version of this post used the term “prediction markets”, because that is how Spigit brands these mechanisms, but, on a closer look, each participant can’t choose the amount to bet/trade. –> FAIL. On top of that, their system is [...]

Posted in Collective Forecasting | Also tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, collective predictions, event derivative markets, IBM Smarter Cities, IBM Smarter Cities prediction markets, prediction markets, Predictions, social forecasting, social predictions, Spigit

IBM = a bunch of idiots

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 2, 2009 — 2 Comments

They license this video with Creative Commons ["CC" is for closed caption], and they don’t allow me to embed it in my blog. And when I click on an external web link on their site, I am treated with a pop-up window warning me that I leave the IBM site site. I know that, you, [...]

Posted in Finance | Also tagged Finance, Smarter Planet

Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise.

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 29, 2008 — 2 Comments

Here are short excerpts of the Forrester report on enterprise prediction markets and companies that provide software for enterprise prediction markets.
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The Forrester executive summary:
The “wisdom of crowds” is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, and, as a result, many are now looking to prediction markets — speculative markets in which traders collectively [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Also tagged A. Huberman, - Bernardo Huberman, Adam, Adam Siegel, Alberta, Bernardo A. Huberman, Bernd Ankenbrand, Boston Consulting Group, Calgary, California, Canada, Center for Energy Commerce, CEO, Charles R. Plott, Chicago, Chris Hibbert, Client Resource Center, Collective Intelligence, corporate prediction markets, David Perry, David Shahar, Director, EDS, Elad Amir, Emile Servan-Schreiber, ENERGY ECONOMIST, energy policy, enterprise prediction markets, Exago, Forrester, France, George Mason University, George Tziralis, Germany, Google, Greece, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HP Services & HP Labs, Illinois, Information Dynamics Lab, IntelliMarket Systems, internal prediction markets, Israel, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Kay-Yut Chen, Ken Kittlitz, KPMG, L.A., Littal Shemer Haim, Maryland, Maurice Balick, Michael Giberson, Microsoft, Nashville, Nathan Kontny, Noam Danon, Oliver Bernhard Pedersen, Paris, Pedro Da Cunha, Pennsylvania, Peter Gollowitsch, Portugal, prediction market consultants, Prediction Market Software, prediction markets, private prediction markets, R. Plott, - Charles Plott, Rawls College of Business, Robin Hanson, Software architect / , Zocalo, project manager, software for prediction markets, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech University, United States, University of Kansas, University of Pennsylvania's Wharton Business School, Virginia, Virtual Specialist, VP Business development, VP R&D, wisdom of crowds, Yahoo!

Prediction Markets vs. Bookmakers — The Ultimate Argument

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 16, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Las Vegas Sun:
“The bookie’s odds will be influenced by his appetite for risk, the action he’s got on his side and his own bias,” said John Delaney, chief executive officer of Dublin-based Intrade.com, the world’s largest prediction market. “If I were to ask you where you would find the expected value of IBM, would you [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Finance | Also tagged bookmakers, broker, Chief Executive Officer, Dublin, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, InTrade.com, John Delaney, prediction markets