Tag Archives: historical prediction markets
Koleman Strumpf assesses the election forecast.
InTrade’s Historical Prediction Markets
InTrade’s historical data are for sell. – $$$
However, if you can help John Delaney over-sell his prediction markets as the new magical tool that will help “avoiding” the future financial crisis, you will get these historical data for free.
Historical Political Prediction Markets
Historical Political Futures Markets: An International Perspective – (ungated, earlier version: PDF file) – by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman Strumpf – 2008-10-xx
Historical Prediction Markets
The ProQuest P.R. machine sends Koleman Strumpf’s research paper on the historical prediction markets to all journalists, so as to generate good Press for ProQuest, and it works fine, as intended.
[CORRECTION: Jack Shafer found the Strumpf paper on his own. The ProQuest publicist sent him "a batch of clips on the topic culled by the [...]
Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?
Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.
CNN:
FOREMAN: I’ve got something I want you to take a look at. Look at this. It could be the price of a stock or a mutual fund. It isn’t. It’s the odds that a particular candidate, the red here is Hillary Clinton, who will become president of the United States. It’s called the predictive market. [...]
Polls Vs. Prediction Markets
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Asia Times:
[...] Outperforming Taiwan’s polls shouldn’t be hard. They’re notoriously bad as a forecast of election outcomes. In late 2006, for example, many media polls underrated the pro-independence party’s support – a recurring problem. Taiwan’s prediction markets did a much better job of estimating vote shares (the island’s two markets both called the Kaohsiung mayoral [...]
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