Tag Archives: historical prediction markets

Koleman Strumpf assesses the election forecast.

Posted on November 3, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, assessing election forecast, BetFair Predicts, historical prediction markets, Koleman Strumpf, prediction acccuracy, prediction market accuracy, prediction markets | Leave a comment

InTrade’s Historical Prediction Markets

Posted on October 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade’s historical data are for sell. – $$$ However, if you can help John Delaney over-sell his prediction markets as the new magical tool that will help “avoiding” the future financial crisis, you will get these historical data for free.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged historical data, historical prediction markets, InTrade, marketing, prediction markets | 1 Comment

Historical Political Prediction Markets

Posted on October 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Historical Political Futures Markets: An International Perspective – (ungated, earlier version: PDF file) – by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman Strumpf – 2008-10-xx

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, History | Tagged accuracy, historical prediction markets, Koleman Strumpf, political election prediction markets, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, US presidential elections | Leave a comment

Historical Prediction Markets

Posted on September 27, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The ProQuest P.R. machine sends Koleman Strumpf’s research paper on the historical prediction markets to all journalists, so as to generate good Press for ProQuest, and it works fine, as intended. [CORRECTION: Jack Shafer found the Strumpf paper on his … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, History, Prediction Journalism, Regulations | Tagged bet exchanges, bet markets, betting exchanges, betting markets, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, finance. politics, historical prediction markets, History, Journalism, Koleman Strumpf, prediction exchanges, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, ProQuest, US politics, Wall Street | Leave a comment

Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?

Posted on June 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Meta) | Tagged accuracy, event derivative markets, event derivatives, historical prediction markets, Koleman Strumpf, polls, prediction markets, Professor, Strumpf | Leave a comment

Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.

Posted on April 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

CNN: FOREMAN: I’ve got something I want you to take a look at. Look at this. It could be the price of a stock or a mutual fund. It isn’t. It’s the odds that a particular candidate, the red here … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged accuracy, CNN, crude oil, director of the Sports Book, Dublin, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Forecasting (Science & Practice), FOREMAN, Hillary Clinton, historical prediction markets, InTrade, Iowa, Iowa Electronic Markets, Ireland, JOHN AVELLO, Johnny Avello, Kansas, Koleman Strumpf, Las Vegas, Madame Tussaud's Wax Museum, online markets, particular candidate, prediction markets, President, president of the United States, Professor, surprise, the New York Times, United States, University of Kansas, University of Kansas School of Business, upset, USD, Wall Street, Washington, Wisconsin, WYNN, WYNN HOTEL | 3 Comments

Polls Vs. Prediction Markets

Posted on March 14, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Asia Times: [...] Outperforming Taiwan’s polls shouldn’t be hard. They’re notoriously bad as a forecast of election outcomes. In late 2006, for example, many media polls underrated the pro-independence party’s support – a recurring problem. Taiwan’s prediction markets did … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Asia, candidate, Center for Prediction Markets, Director, Europe, event derivative markets, event derivatives, fortune-telling tool, historical prediction markets, Kaohsiung, Koleman Strumpf, Lin Jih-wen, Ma Ying-jeou, media polls, Mike Giberson, polls, prediction markets, Taiwan, United States | 2 Comments