Tag Archives: historical prediction markets

Koleman Strumpf assesses the election forecast.

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InTrade’s Historical Prediction Markets

InTrade’s historical data are for sell. – $$$ However, if you can help John Delaney over-sell his prediction markets as the new magical tool that will help “avoiding” the future financial crisis, you will get these historical data for free.

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Historical Political Prediction Markets

Historical Political Futures Markets: An International Perspective – (ungated, earlier version: PDF file) – by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman Strumpf – 2008-10-xx

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Historical Prediction Markets

The ProQuest P.R. machine sends Koleman Strumpf’s research paper on the historical prediction markets to all journalists, so as to generate good Press for ProQuest, and it works fine, as intended. [CORRECTION: Jack Shafer found the Strumpf paper on his … Continue reading

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Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?

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Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.

CNN: FOREMAN: I’ve got something I want you to take a look at. Look at this. It could be the price of a stock or a mutual fund. It isn’t. It’s the odds that a particular candidate, the red here … Continue reading

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Polls Vs. Prediction Markets

- Asia Times: [...] Outperforming Taiwan’s polls shouldn’t be hard. They’re notoriously bad as a forecast of election outcomes. In late 2006, for example, many media polls underrated the pro-independence party’s support – a recurring problem. Taiwan’s prediction markets did … Continue reading

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