Tag Archives: Hal Finney
One Robin Hanson fanboy admits that prediction markets, by essence, can’t foretell meta disasters implicating the destruction of all world-wide prediction markets themselves.
Hal Finney on the probability of the Large Hadron Collider destroying the universe:
Unfortunately this is one kind of question where an Idea Futures market would not work too well, because people who correctly bet that the reactor will destroy the earth may not be able to collect their winnings. This would cause the market to [...]
2008 US Electoral Map Prediction
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US ELECTORAL MAP: Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College
ElectoralMarkets.com
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Via Read & Write Web
2008 Electoral Map (based on InTade) + 2008 Electoral Map (based on polls)
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UPDATE: Hal Finney
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See our PREDICTIONS page for more predictive data…
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Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com).
By Lance Fortnow, David [...]
Robin Hanson made a career telling people he is “not a joiner”, but where the hell can you spot his true beliefs in Bob’s petitions?
Robin Hanson at LinkedIn
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Robin Hanson:
[...] I have a passion, a sacred quest, to understand everything, and to save the world. I am addicted to “viewquakes”, insights which dramatically change my world view. I loved science fiction as a child, studied physics and artificial intelligence for a long time each, and now study economics [...]
A historical Robin Hanson fanboy can’t believe his hero signed Bob’s ill-informed and unwise petition.
Hal Finney:
My concern is that the small stakes limit of $2,000, the limits on who can operate markets, and the limitations on the scope of markets, will lead to spotty coverage which will preclude a robust evaluation of the merits of prediction markets in general. After all, we have intrade.com already which provides spotty coverage [...]
Predictor Accuracy: the Hedgehog vs. the Fox
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Ellen Goodman:
[...] The closed-minded hedgehogs are those who know ”one big thing” and relate everything to that single, central vision. The open-minded foxes ”know many little things” and accept ambiguity and contradictions. [...] It’s no surprise that foxes are better at forecasting than hedgehogs. [...] How then do we cultivate good judgment? Most Americans are [...]
The “Remark” Of The Day
You will notice that the rationality luminary (or so Robin Hanson thinks he is) Hal Finney only talks about the bright side of the prediction markets, never about their dark side (the expiry problems and the controversies that go with that).
Press “1″ if you think that’s a bias; press “2″ if you think that’s an [...]
Anonymity is important for employees trading on internal prediction markets.
About A 1990 Corporate Prediction Market. Comments at Overcoming Bias:
HAL FINNEY: What do you think about the fact that Xanadu employees put their probability of success as high as 70%? This product is somewhat legendary today for its repeated failures despite its high promise. A number of articles have been written (see http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.06/xanadu.html from 1995 [...]
Who the hell is Hal Finney???
The guy blogs like crazy at Overcoming Errors dot com (where the main error is to let him publish a long post that does not contain either a summary or emphasized sentences), but we will never get to see his pedigree:
Disk Crash!
Due to a disk crash, the Finney family web pages are temporarily off line. [...]
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