Tag Archives: future

PRECOGNITION PAPER: Daryl Bem et al. respond to Wagenmakers et al. – [BAYESIAN STUFF]

Via Dean Radin, PDF file. UPDATE: Andrew Gelman’s remarks (or lack of).

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The New York Times readers generate hundreds of (smart) comments about Daryl Bem’s precognition paper.

Wow, the psi research field (led by Dean Radin et al.) is as hot as the Sun in Summer. When Science Goes Psychic @ The New York Times.

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10 questions for Ray Kurzweil – [VIDEO]

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Vinod Khosla: The pundits are incapable of forecasting the future. – [VIDEO]

Web 2.0 Summit 2010: Vinod Khosla, “Innovation vs. Punditry” Extrapolating the Past vs Inventing the Future:

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The future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today, wars, massive government debt defaults and the impoverishment of large segments of Western society.

“The future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today, wars, massive government debt defaults and the impoverishment of large segments of Western society.” Download this post to watch the Marc … Continue reading

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Professor Richard Wiseman misunderstands both the (real) wisdom of crowds and the (hypothetical) mechanism of precognition.

Professor Richard Wiseman (from the University of Hertfordshire) does not understand that: – His psychic experiment on Twitter can’t be qualified as harnessing “the wisdom of crowds”, since there is no information that the participants can ever aggregate (since they … Continue reading

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Precognition | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Do Oil Futures Prices Help Predict Future Oil Prices?

Do Oil Futures Prices Help Predict Future Oil Prices? Via Mike Linksvayer in a comment…

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What Robin Hanson told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

Robin Hanson: Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 10:12:46 -0400 To: secretary@cftc.gov From: Robin Hanson <rhanson@gmu.edu> Subject: Comment on “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts” —————————————————————- I am an event market innovator, having published the first detailed … Continue reading

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Technology Futurism

2 news articles in the Wall Street Journal that I have just scanned (coz I don’t trust the WSJ for technology news): Thinking About Tomorrow – How will technology change the way we shop, learn and entertain ourselves? How will … Continue reading

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The Future of the Prediction Markets

Even a prediction market fanboy feeds on the polls —first and foremost. Steve Dubner, the journalist and co-author of Freakonomics, is, along with his two blog colleagues (Steve Levitt and Justin Wolfers), a strong supporter of the prediction markets. They … Continue reading

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