Tag Archives: Forecasting (Science & Practice)

What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about collective forecasting

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

In honor of our good doctor Robin Hanson, I am creating a new category, “collective forecasting“ —and the “forecasting” category becomes “traditional forecasting“, to mark the difference. (Can you sense it, Paul Hewitt?) The prof should take this as a … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, collective intelligence that predicts, forecasting, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Nate Silver, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | 2 Comments

Predicting = Forecasting –> Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

What is the etymology of the word forecasting? forecast (v.) c.1388, “to scheme,” from fore “before” + casten “contrive.” Meaning “predict events” first attested 1494. Previously: Apple dictionary on “predicting” vs “forecasting” Previously: Andrew Gelman on “predicting” vs “forecasting” – … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence that predicts, definitions, Explainers, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasts, predict, predicting, Predictions, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Predicting vs. Forecasting

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Mark Phillips: QUESTION (from LinkedIn): Forecasting the same as prediction? Which one is more realistic and easier to do? ANSWER: Forecasting is different from predicting. Predicting is much easier but far less accurate. Predicting is when you start making guesses … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged definitions, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasts, predicting, Predictions | Leave a comment

Prof Andrew Gelman on “predicting” and “forecasting”

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Andrew Gelman: I suspect the words have different meanings in different contexts. In statistics, “prediction” is often used even when the result has already happened: that is, if you have a model, y = f(x) + error, then f(x) is … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Andrew Gelman, definitions, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasts, predicting, Predictions | Leave a comment

What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about “forecasting”

Posted on May 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Here is what the Apple Macintosh dictionary says about “predict” (which I went to from “forecast”): THE RIGHT WORD While all of these words refer to telling something before it happens, predict is the most commonly used and applies to … Continue reading →

Forecasting or Predicting?

Posted on May 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: “Collective prediction” sounds a lot more awkward to my ear than “collective forecasting.” “Collaborative prediction” sounds just as bad. I don’t think most people see much a difference between “forecasting” and “prediction”, other than that, “forecasting” is a … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Forecasting (Science & Practice), predicting | Leave a comment

Why reporting stuff about prediction markets means bugging the prediction market people till they spit the truth finally

Posted on May 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

If you have been a feed subscriber of Midas Oracle for a long time (we started in 2006 here, and in 2003 for CFM), you know that I act as a gadfly. But there is a reason for that. If … Continue reading →

Posted in Consulting, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Prediction Journalism | Tagged Collective Intelligence, collective intelligence solutions, corporate prediction markets, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Information Aggregation, internal prediction markets, NewsFutures, Prediction Market Software, prediction markets, private prediction markets, software for prediction markets, wisdom of crowds | 2 Comments

Collective Forecasting, Anyone?

Posted on May 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The Question Of The Day: – What do you make of the term “collective forecasting”, coined (apparently) by our good doctor Hanson? Do you think it is appropriate? Does it convey the right message about the specificity of our information … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | 18 Comments

NewsFutures’s software and consulting on enterprise prediction markets

Posted on May 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I am happy to run Emile Servan-Schreiber’s correction (well, correcting me ) on the fact that NewsFutures still provides EPM SaaS, since I love NewsFutures’s CDA technology as much as Chris Hibbert does. However, I maintain that providers of collective … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Software | Tagged Collective Intelligence, collective intelligence solutions, corporate prediction markets, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Information Aggregation, internal prediction markets, NewsFutures, Prediction Market Software, prediction markets, private prediction markets, software for prediction markets, wisdom of crowds | 2 Comments

Should you be bullish on enterprise prediction markets?

Posted on May 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: There is now a prediction market industry, where I do a lot of consulting, most of which is to private companies. Most of these are on prediction markets, but some are decision markets. What Robin Hanson does not … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Collective Intelligence, corporate prediction markets, CrowdCast, decision-aid markets, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Information Aggregation, Inkling, inkling markets, internal prediction markets, NewsFutures, prediction market industry, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Robin Hanson, wisdom of crowds | 8 Comments

Tag Archives: Forecasting (Science & Practice)

What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about collective forecasting

Predicting = Forecasting –> Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Predicting vs. Forecasting

Prof Andrew Gelman on “predicting” and “forecasting”

What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about “forecasting”

Forecasting or Predicting?

Why reporting stuff about prediction markets means bugging the prediction market people till they spit the truth finally

Collective Forecasting, Anyone?

NewsFutures’s software and consulting on enterprise prediction markets

Should you be bullish on enterprise prediction markets?

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