Tag Archives: Forecasting (Science & Practice)

Philip Tetlock’s forecasting project is now open to non-US participants. — [UPDATE]

Posted on August 2, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

IMPORTANT: IARPA has removed the US citizenship requirement for survey participants. – Philip E. Tetlock et al.: Prediction markets can harness the “wisdom of crowds” to solve problems, develop products, and make forecasts. These systems typically treat collective intelligence as … Continue reading →

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What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about collective forecasting

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

In honor of our good doctor Robin Hanson, I am creating a new category, “collective forecasting“ —and the “forecasting” category becomes “traditional forecasting“, to mark the difference. (Can you sense it, Paul Hewitt?) The prof should take this as a … Continue reading →

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Predicting = Forecasting –> Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

What is the etymology of the word forecasting? forecast (v.) c.1388, “to scheme,” from fore “before” + casten “contrive.” Meaning “predict events” first attested 1494. Previously: Apple dictionary on “predicting” vs “forecasting” Previously: Andrew Gelman on “predicting” vs “forecasting” – … Continue reading →

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Predicting vs. Forecasting

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Mark Phillips: QUESTION (from LinkedIn): Forecasting the same as prediction? Which one is more realistic and easier to do? ANSWER: Forecasting is different from predicting. Predicting is much easier but far less accurate. Predicting is when you start making guesses … Continue reading →

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Prof Andrew Gelman on “predicting” and “forecasting”

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Andrew Gelman: I suspect the words have different meanings in different contexts.  In statistics, “prediction” is often used even when the result has already happened:  that is, if you have a model, y = f(x) + error, then f(x) is … Continue reading →

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What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about “forecasting”

Posted on May 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Here is what the Apple Macintosh dictionary says about “predict” (which I went to from “forecast”): THE RIGHT WORD While all of these words refer to telling something before it happens, predict is the most commonly used and applies to … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Forecasting or Predicting?

Posted on May 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: “Collective prediction” sounds a lot more awkward to my ear than “collective forecasting.” “Collaborative prediction” sounds just as bad. I don’t think most people see much a difference between “forecasting” and “prediction”, other than that, “forecasting” is a … Continue reading →

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Why reporting stuff about prediction markets means bugging the prediction market people till they spit the truth finally

Posted on May 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

If you have been a feed subscriber of Midas Oracle for a long time (we started in 2006 here, and in 2003 for CFM), you know that I act as a gadfly. But there is a reason for that. If … Continue reading →

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Collective Forecasting, Anyone?

Posted on May 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The Question Of The Day: – What do you make of the term “collective forecasting”, coined (apparently) by our good doctor Hanson? Do you think it is appropriate? Does it convey the right message about the specificity of our information … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , | 18 Comments

NewsFutures’s software and consulting on enterprise prediction markets

Posted on May 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I am happy to run Emile Servan-Schreiber’s correction (well, correcting me ) on the fact that NewsFutures still provides EPM SaaS, since I love NewsFutures’s CDA technology as much as Chris Hibbert does. However, I maintain that providers of collective … Continue reading →

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