Tag Archives: financial crises
What is the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets?
InTrade CEO John Delaney over-sells his prediction markets to a gullible journalist.
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Prediction markets are just an information aggregation mechanism (and also a collective anticipation mechanism), which highly depends on what the experts on the ground can discover. Prediction markets are not a magical tool. Event derivative traders are like bees; they harvest information and the [...]
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Finance
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Also tagged a tool of convenience, a tool of curiosity, betting markets, credit rating agencies, event derivative markets, InTrade, John Delaney, Moody's, prediction markets, Standard & Poor's, Traditional Forecasting
Can InTrade’s prediction markets really “contribute to solutions in avoiding future [financial] crises”?
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To the question asked in the title of this post, some have answered by the affirmative (“Prediction Markets Have a Big Role to Play”). In my view, it is wrong to overvalue the real social utility of the prediction markets.
As of today, we can plainly see 2 things. Number one, the prediction markets are a [...]
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Leading & Lagging Indicators, The Global Economy, Traditional Forecasting
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Also tagged a tool of convenience, a tool of curiosity, betting markets, Ed Miracle, event derivative markets, I Told You So, InTrade, John Delaney, prediction markets, Traditional Forecasting
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