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Tag Archives: event derivative
Are prediction markets useful? – [ANALYSIS]
Paul Hewitt: Jason: I can see how you might think that of Chris, but I think it is more true that as Chris acquired more knowledge about prediction markets, he became more skeptical. I have to admit that the same … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets
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Tagged analysis, Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, event derivative, event derivative markets, forecasting, forecasts, Paul Hewitt, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, wisdom of crowds
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3 Comments
Prediction Market Definition —updated
Definition – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Meta), Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice)
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Tagged accuracy, betting markets, definitions, event derivative, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasting mechanisms, future events, Information Aggregation, information value, objective probabilistic predictions, prediction accuracy, prediction market, prediction market definition, prediction market explainer, prediction markets, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, Robin Hanson, the future
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1 Comment