Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Eric Zitzewitz

Wanna know what Eric Zitzewitz thinks of Michael Abramowitz’s Predictocracy?

To read Eric Zitzewitz’s review of Michael Abramowitz’s Predictocracy, you need to go behind a wall.
Totally absurd.
Book reviews are typically the kind of information that should be free and easily accessible —HTML style.
Previously: Is weather betting legal if you bundle it with auto leasing?

The Financial Meltdown: Causes, Consequences, and Options

The banking, financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009
Spot Eric Zitzewitz:

Previously: Is weather betting legal if you bundle it with auto leasing?

Is weather betting legal if you bundle it with auto leasing?

Pride Motors, a Boston area car dealer, is advertising the following special:
Lease a car before August 26, and if it’s above 96 degrees at Boston Logan Airport on Labor Day, they will make your first 12 lease payments for you (minimum 36 month lease term).
This reminds me a lot of Jordan Furniture’s “free furniture if [...]

Why did Brad DeLong pick on our Eric Zitzewitz?

Jason Ruspini:
It seemed like Delong interpreted the mere suggestion of 10% interest rates as a veiled attack on the Obama administration. That would explain the unfairly harsh and pedantic manner of his post.
I think that Delong is right to be sensitive on this subject. Trading in Treasuries has recently seemed a bit aggressive and not [...]

Eric Zitzewitz wanna bet with Brad DeLong.

Brad DeLong bended Eric Zitzewitz’s ear, and now our Dartmouth padawan wants a bet:
Brad,
The post you refer to is a follow up post to a post in March that does a similar analysis about the S&P 500.
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/02/quantifying-the-nightmare-scenarios/
In that post (linked to in the post about Treasuries) I make the point about the marginal utility of [...]

Prediction Markets in India

Eric Zitzewitz (in the November 2008 edition of The Analyst, an Indian publication for financial analysts):
I think the CFTC is likely to define a set of limits which, if followed, will subject a prediction [exchange] to CFTC regulation which will hopefully be lighter than their regulation of HedgeStreet (which essentially was so heavy-handed it killed [...]

Is InTrade being manipulated? Why does InTrade give a discounted probability for Barack Obama as US president?

A quick link panorama.
-
#1. Is InTrade being manipulated?
- Nate Silver shows that there are abrupt downward pressures on the Barack Obama event derivative, while we also see some abrupt upward pressures on the Hillary Clinton event derivative.
However, you can see by yourself that InTrade is resilient enough and does a great job of going back [...]

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file):
July 4th 2008
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Centre
1155 21st Street NW
Washington, DC 20581
U.S.A.
Attention: Office of the Secretariat
RE: “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts”
To Whom it May Concern:
It is an honour for me as Chief Executive Officer of Intrade [...]

Chris Masse’s second comment to the CFTC on “event markets” (prediction markets)

Chris F. Masse
Midas Oracle
cfm —— midasoracle —— com
chrisfmasse —— gmail —— com
July 6th, 2008
Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Centre
1155 21st St. NW
Washington D.C. 20581
Attention:
Office of the Secretariat- secretary@cftc.gov
Reference:
Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
73 FR 25669
-
Just a technical note, before I give you my thoughts. In the following, I call “prediction market” [...]

My response to the CFTC on event contracts

Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it.
Given the political implications of the rise in commodity prices, this is not the best environment in [...]

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