Tag Archives: economic forecasts

Economists who had a better record at calling extreme events had a worse record in general.

“The analyst with the largest number as well as the highest proportion of accurate and extreme forecasts had, by far, the worst forecasting record.“

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Economics, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The United States and the European governments will default on their debt, eventually — dixit Marc Faber. [PREDICTIONS]

Singapore is the safest. 2:15 into Download this post to watch the video —if your feed reader does not show it to you. Via Joe Weisenthal

Posted in Finance, Financial Markets, Predictions - Forecasts, The Global Economy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Can prediction markets help improve economic forecasts?

Contrary to the suggestion of Hendry and Reade, I don’t think “model averaging” is a useful explanation of what prediction markets do. Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments