Tag Archives: economic forecasting

Economists who had a better record at calling extreme events had a worse record in general.

“The analyst with the largest number as well as the highest proportion of accurate and extreme forecasts had, by far, the worst forecasting record.“

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Forecasting the US economy for 2010 and 2011

Economic forecasting for 2010 and 2011

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Paul Krugman ridiculizes Justin Wolfers’s thesis advisor.

Paul Krugman – (How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?): [I]n a 2008 paper titled “The State of Macro” (that is, macroeconomics, the study of big-picture issues like recessions), Olivier Blanchard of M.I.T., now the chief economist at the International … Continue reading

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Yes, CFO Magazine did misinterpret the output data from the CFO Prediction Market powered by CrowdCast.

Leslie Fine: Chris, As I replied to you privately, indeed Vince made a mistake. [*] It is a common one for those who are not deeply familiar with prediction markets, and we have clarified the meaning of the data with … Continue reading

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Does the CFO Magazine writer misinterpret the outputs of the CFO Prediction Market (which is powered by CrowdCast)?

CFO Vincent Ryan: Indeed, asked “When will real GDP grow again?”, 32% of 168 participants project the fourth quarter of this year. Since Leslie Fine told us that CrowdCast uses a market mechanism (“binary spreads with a market maker”) to … Continue reading

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