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- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
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- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
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Tag Archives: economic forecasting
Economists who had a better record at calling extreme events had a worse record in general.
“The analyst with the largest number as well as the highest proportion of accurate and extreme forecasts had, by far, the worst forecasting record.“
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Economics, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Prediction Post-Mortem
Tagged analysis, economic forecasting, economic forecasts, economic predicting, economic predictions, Economics, economy, forecasting, forecasts, post-mortem, post-mortem predictions, predicting, Prediction Post-Mortem, Predictions
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Forecasting the US economy for 2010 and 2011
Economic forecasting for 2010 and 2011
Posted in The Global Economy
Tagged 2010, 2011, economic forecasting, economy, employment, forecasting, job creation, macro economy, macroeconomy, trends, unemployment, US economy
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Paul Krugman ridiculizes Justin Wolfers’s thesis advisor.
Paul Krugman – (How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?): [I]n a 2008 paper titled “The State of Macro†(that is, macroeconomics, the study of big-picture issues like recessions), Olivier Blanchard of M.I.T., now the chief economist at the International … Continue reading
Yes, CFO Magazine did misinterpret the output data from the CFO Prediction Market powered by CrowdCast.
Leslie Fine: Chris, As I replied to you privately, indeed Vince made a mistake. [*] It is a common one for those who are not deeply familiar with prediction markets, and we have clarified the meaning of the data with … Continue reading
Does the CFO Magazine writer misinterpret the outputs of the CFO Prediction Market (which is powered by CrowdCast)?
CFO Vincent Ryan: Indeed, asked “When will real GDP grow again?”, 32% of 168 participants project the fourth quarter of this year. Since Leslie Fine told us that CrowdCast uses a market mechanism (“binary spreads with a market maker”) to … Continue reading