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Tag Archives: digital odds
Why the BetFair model is partially obsolete
I like BetFair and the BetFair people very much. I was the only blogger to talk up the BetFair starting price system and the BetFair brand-new bet-matching logic. But the other face of the coin is that 2 aspects of … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce
Tagged BetFair, business models, decimal odds, digital odds, Google, Google Search, Google Web Search, Internet search engine, Internet search engines, odds, prediction market approach, prediction markets, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, Search Engine
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Londoners (among them many faithful Midas Oracle readers) go voting today. Spot, in the first chart, that British political betting expert Mike Smithson serves some (IMPLIED) PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED IN PERCENTAGES to his readers —and not those fu***ng fractional odds, or those equally fu***ng digital / decimal odds.
- Boris Johnson, next mayor of London: – RELATED: BetFair’s “percentage vote share” prediction markets are illiquid, alas. – BetFair blog’s London page — Tabloid style. I don’t like it much. I think politics should be treated more seriously. Mike … Continue reading
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
Tagged Bath, BetFair, Boris Johnson, Bristol, decimal odds, digital odds, elections, event derivative markets, event derivatives, fractional odds, Google, Ken Livingstone, London, mayor, Mike Robb, Mike Smithson, New York Times, percentages, prediction markets, probabilities
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BetFair Digital Odds = BetFair Probabilities
Odds that Hillary Clinton gets the 2008 Democratic nomination = 1.56 (digital odds taken at 9:15 AM EST) To get the implied probability expressed in percentage: Take the number “1″; Divided it by the digital odds (here “1.56″); Then multiply … Continue reading
British blogger Mike Smithson uses probabilities expressed in percentages, not digital odds, for his charts.
Probabilities expressed in percentages are easier to convey to the public. If Mike Smithson got it, why can’t BetFair get it?
0-100 prices… explained to the British traders.
BinarySoft: Why Binary Prices? There are several advantages of using binary prices instead of decimal odds: 1. Binary prices are more intuitive than decimal odds. Ask a person on the street what they think the chances are of a certain … Continue reading