Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: decision making

Robin Hanson’s blah blah on futarchy (using conditional prediction markets to govern a country) — [VIDEO]

Robin Hanson debates a Mencius Moldbug on prediction markets, decision markets, and… futarchy:

Foresight 2010 debate: Futarchy from Monica Anderson on Vimeo.
Download this post to watch the video —if your feed reader does not show it to you.
Who cares about that Mencius Moldbug anyway?
Previously.

Irrational Decision Making — Dan Ariely

Why we should ban PowerPoint from our prediction market conferences

“PowerPoint has clearly decreased the quality of the information provided to the decision-maker, but the damage doesn’t end there. It has also changed the culture of decision-making.“

Hunch = Collective intelligence tool for decision-making

Hunch
Powered by MIT ideas — Much more useful than Robin Hanson’s decision-aid markets.
Great usability. I registered and tested it. They are onto something. Besides NetFlix, have you ever heard of other collective intelligence tool of this kind? Leave the URLs in the comments.

Decision markets will one day revolutionize governance, both public and private…

That’s the blurb that Robin Hanson wrote up for “Predictocracy“, Michael Abramowicz’s book. I don’t believe a single word of it. If prediction markets and decision-aid markets were so powerful, we would have had the evidence under our very nose, since everybody and his sister are experimenting with prediction markets since 2003.
Find here a good [...]

Institutional Decision Analysis

Institutional Decision Analysis – a concept by Andrew Gelman
The term “decision analysis” has multiple meanings in Bayesian statistics. When we use the term here, we are not talking about problems of parameter estimation, squared error loss, etc. Rather, we use “decision analysis” to refer to the solution of particular decision problems (such as in medicine, [...]

Why EPM consulting is still a pretty evangelical business.

Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures (responding to Paul Hewitt):
[...] The hard part, the real hurdles to acceptance are (i) to get wide and consistent participation, (ii) to overcome the suspicion of decision makers who naturally don’t like to be second-guessed by subordinates, (iii) to get the organization to agree to ask important questions instead of trivial [...]

Statistical-based predictive scoring metrics and analytical decision solutions

Predictive Metrics

Prediction markets didn’t “revolutionize” decision-making —and will never do. However, they are a nice condiment to the classic forecasting toolkit.

I have spent several hours re-reading the 2004 AEI-Brookings book, “Information Markets” (by which they mean “prediction markets”). It is a collection of un-enlightening research articles —except for the IEM article, which is outstanding, both on the factual and theoretical sides.
In the conclusion of their introduction, Robert Hahn and Paul Tetlock wrote that they want [...]

Do you have what it takes to run the CIA?

Former CIA Deputy Director John McLaughlin:
Other qualities [= other than experience in the Intelligence Community] are capacity to make decisions when there are no easy options and to take responsibility for them, situational awareness about the secondary and tertiary consequences of those decisions, good judgment about what is right, true, or advisable when presented with [...]

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