Tag Archives: decision making

Larry Page on decision making — [VIDEO]

Posted on September 28, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

One of the interesting things that we’ve noticed is that companies correlate on decision making and speed of decision making. There are basically no companies that have good slow decisions. There are only companies that have good fast decisions. I … Continue reading →

Posted in Business, Business Administration, Collective Decision Making, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Entrepreneurship, Individual Intelligence - Anti Consensus, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Robin Hanson’s blah blah on futarchy (using conditional prediction markets to govern a country) — [VIDEO]

Posted on February 11, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson debates a Mencius Moldbug on prediction markets, decision markets, and… futarchy: Foresight 2010 debate: Futarchy from Monica Anderson on Vimeo. Download this post to watch the video —if your feed reader does not show it to you. Who … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Irrational Decision Making — Dan Ariely

Posted on October 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse
Posted in Economics, Psychology | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Why we should ban PowerPoint from our prediction market conferences

Posted on July 28, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

“PowerPoint has clearly decreased the quality of the information provided to the decision-maker, but the damage doesn’t end there. It has also changed the culture of decision-making.“

Posted in Psychology | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Hunch = Collective intelligence tool for decision-making

Posted on June 16, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Hunch Powered by MIT ideas — Much more useful than Robin Hanson’s decision-aid markets. Great usability. I registered and tested it. They are onto something. Besides NetFlix, have you ever heard of other collective intelligence tool of this kind? Leave … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Psychology | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Decision markets will one day revolutionize governance, both public and private…

Posted on June 9, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

That’s the blurb that Robin Hanson wrote up for “Predictocracy“, Michael Abramowicz’s book. I don’t believe a single word of it. If prediction markets and decision-aid markets were so powerful, we would have had the evidence under our very nose, … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Institutional Decision Analysis

Posted on May 28, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Institutional Decision Analysis – a concept by Andrew Gelman The term “decision analysis” has multiple meanings in Bayesian statistics. When we use the term here, we are not talking about problems of parameter estimation, squared error loss, etc. Rather, we … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Why EPM consulting is still a pretty evangelical business.

Posted on April 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures (responding to Paul Hewitt): [...] The hard part, the real hurdles to acceptance are (i) to get wide and consistent participation, (ii) to overcome the suspicion of decision makers who naturally don’t like to be second-guessed … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Statistical-based predictive scoring metrics and analytical decision solutions

Posted on February 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Predictive Metrics

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Resources - References | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Prediction markets didn’t “revolutionize” decision-making —and will never do. However, they are a nice condiment to the classic forecasting toolkit.

Posted on February 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I have spent several hours re-reading the 2004 AEI-Brookings book, “Information Markets” (by which they mean “prediction markets”). It is a collection of un-enlightening research articles —except for the IEM article, which is outstanding, both on the factual and theoretical … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment