Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: D.C.

The CFTC is going to close the comments in 3 days. We have 3 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).

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ADDRESSES: Comments should be sent to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Three Lafayette Centre, 1155 21st Street, NW., Washington, DC 20581, Attention: Office of the Secretariat. Comments may be sent by facsimile to 202.418.5521, or by e-mail to secretary@cftc.gov.
Reference should be made to the “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” Comments [...]

The CFTC is going to close the comments in 4 days. We have 4 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).

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ADDRESSES: Comments should be sent to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Three Lafayette Centre, 1155 21st Street, NW., Washington, DC 20581, Attention: Office of the Secretariat. Comments may be sent by facsimile to 202.418.5521, or by e-mail to secretary@cftc.gov.
Reference should be made to the “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” Comments [...]

CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts

CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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SUMMARY:
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets. \1\ For ease of reference and to avoid classification issues, these [...]

The best researchers on prediction markets

CFM: Scholars
Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)
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Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke [...]

Where to find advice on how to set up your enterprise prediction markets

Consultants
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Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)

Adam Siegel — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Nathan Kontny

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NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.)

Emile Servan-Schreiber — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Maurice Balick

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Xpree – (U.S.A.)

Mat Fogarty — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

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HP Services – HP Labs – (U.S.A.)

Predicting the future –with games — Introductory article
Information Dynamics [...]

CFTC Requests Public Input on Possible Regulation of “Event Contracts” —a.k.a. event derivative markets, event futures markets, betting markets, bet markets, prediction markets

Via professor Eric Zitzewitz of Dartmouth (one of the top 5 economists studying prediction markets), the CFTC:
Release: 5493-08
For Release: May 1, 2008
CFTC Requests Public Input on Possible Regulation of “Event Contracts”
Washington, DC – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is asking for public comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets [...]

Will HedgeStreet USA, the hypothetical InTrade USA, and the hypothetical TradeFair USA, be regulated in the future by a merged SEC+CFTC regulatory structure?

That sounds like a good prediction market proposal.
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As you all know:

The SEC regulates the securities markets (which support capital formation).
The CFTC regulates the futures markets (which exist to discover prices).
The SEC is rules based, meaning it sets regulations that institutions must follow, while the CFTC is principles based, in that it sets broad [...]

Control in Distributed Networks (Decisions 2.0: Distributed Decision-making)

Control in Distributed Networks (Decisions 2.0: Distributed Decision-making) – Washington, D.C., U.S.A. – 2008-03-25
One of the speakers will be Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures —a true enterprise prediction market pioneer. (He has certainly a point.)

BetFair-backed lobby files a formal complaint against the United States of America for discrimination based on violations of World Trade Organisation rules.

Via Reason, the Remote Gambling Association (PDF file):
EU online gaming industry challenges US with charge of prosecutorial discrimination
Complaint under the EU Trade Barriers Regulation seeks to stop discriminatory practices against European operators
Brussels, 20 December, 2007
The Remote Gambling Association, a leading trade association based in London that represents dozens of European online gaming operators [including The [...]

Remote Gambling Association vs. Prediction Market Industry Association

The Remote Gambling Association (co-lead by lawful and ethical industry player BetFair-TradeFair) will do much more to help legalizing internet gambling and betting (and, hence, prediction exchanges, betting exchanges and prediction markets) in the U.S. than the Prediction Market Industry Association (lead by illegal operator InTrade-TradeSports).
Remote Gambling Association – PDF file:
European Union Commissioner Mandelson Urged [...]

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