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Tag Archives: David S. Lee
Prediction markets compute facts and expertise quicker that the mass media do.
Political prediction markets react (with a small delay) to political polls —just like the political experts and the mass media do, too. Hence, in order to discover their true social utility, the prediction markets (which are tools of intelligence) should … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry
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Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential election, 2008 US presidential elections, America, Barack Obama, BetFair, David S. Lee, Emile Servan-Schreiver, Enrico Moretti, InTrade, John McCain, Lance Fortnow, mass media, Media, NewsFutures, polls, prediction markets, United States Of America
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Prediction markets react to polls.
Learning in Investment Decisions: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Polls – (PDF file) – David S. Lee and Enrico Moretti – 2008-12-XX In this paper, we explore how polls and prediction markets interact in the context of the 2008 U.S. … Continue reading →