The eLab eXchange is up and running again with new markets and more to come on a regular basis!
Spring is the traditional home buying season and many real estate professionals are predicting a significant “-spring bounce.”- Will it happen? Try your hand at predicting the rise (or fall) in web traffic to 5 popular real estate search sites.
If you haven’t visited us lately, come back and see what we’ve got for you to judge: http://elabexchange.com.
Judge right and you can win $25 and have a chance to win the quarterly mega-prize.
Hope to see you soon,
Lawrence D. Wright, Ph.D.
Research Associate, UCR eLab eXchange
Tom W. Bell – (a law professor who have been following the field of prediction markets for years):
My two cents on “competitive forecasting”: It probably rises above a merely generic mark, which could never be protected, because it is not the commonplace name for the service to which it refers. It more likely qualifies as a descriptive mark, and as such could be protected only if “secondary meaning” were proven. In other words, the claimant would have to show that by dint of long exposure to its use in a commercial context, consumers had come to understand the mark not as a mere description but as the name of the claimant’s service. Whether or not “competitive forecasting” can meet that test remains a question of fact, of course.
Caveat: I speak only of U.S. law, though most common law countries follow similar principles.
PostScriptum: Put aside that discussion about branding, I like NewsFutures as a play-money prediction exchange, and I have come to realize, e-mailing Emile privately, that he is one of the man I would go for to have an in-depth foray into the real value of the prediction markets (going beyond accuracy, onto utility) —-ironically, the kind of stuff that Robin Hanson is researching more seriously these days (PPT file).
I’-d say no, but I could be damn wrong.
Where is Tom W. Bell when we need him?
Toward Info Accounting In Competitive Forecasting – PPT file – by Robin Hanson – 2008-10-15
An interesting set of slides —-though it’-s about the technicalities of value assessment, and not about the big picture.
The eLab eXchange has just opened “-The Web of Misery,”- a competitive forecasting tournament hosted by Newsfutures, with 10 markets that reflect new online indicators of economic distress. Come and give it your best shot – forecast just how bad you think the economy is going to get in the next few months! One of the markets is reproduced above.
During periods of economic hardship, conventional wisdom suggests that some people tend to increase their level of certain behaviors, for example, they may “-cling to guns or religion,”- or perhaps turn to alcohol or gambling in an attempt to relieve any pressures they may be feeling about a “-rough patch.”- Additionally, the skyrocketing costs of food, health care and gas, not to mention the real estate downturn, suggest that, in general, many consumers will become more careful about how they spend their hard-earned dollars.
The Web of Misery captures 10 of these behaviors and let’-s consumers forecast their impact. You can try your hand at judging the impact of the economic slowdown at eLab eXchange today!
Previous blog posts by Donna Hoffman:
- The eLab eXchange Has Some Fun With Online Shopping This Holiday Season.
- The Consumer Behavior of Prediction Markets