Tag Archives: collective intelligence that predicts

French TV anchor will launch a collective forecasting website.

Posted on August 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Patrick Poivre D’Arvor (alias “PPDA”) is said to be planning a social prediction website. Will it be powered by a prediction market technology, or else? Mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma. UPDATE: A new play-money betting operator opens … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Forecasting | Tagged Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence that predicts, collective predicting, collective predictions, Emile Servan-Schreiber, NewsFutures, Patrick Poivre D'Arvor, PPDA, prediction markets, social forecasting, social predictions | Leave a comment

CrowdCast = market mechanism = binary spreads with a market maker

Posted on July 20, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Leslie Fine (CrowdCast Chief Scientist) to me: Actually, our mechanism is a market, it’s just not a stock market. We use an automated market maker to efficiently price every bet, adjust crowd beliefs, and price an interim sell. In essence, … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Collective Forecasting, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs | Tagged automated market makers, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, collective intelligence that predicts, CrowdCast, event derivative markets, Leslie Fine, market designs, market makers, market mechanisms, markets, Mechanism Designs, prediction markets | 2 Comments

The number of people searching for the term â€œeconomic depressionâ€ on Google is down to normal levels.

Posted on July 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Says Larry Summers —who is no less than the Director of the White House’s National Economic Council for President Barack Obama.

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, The Global Economy | Tagged Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence that predicts, economic depression, Google Search, information aggregation, Larry Summers, National Economic Council | Leave a comment

Dawn Tevekelian Keller wants to convince your boss to adopt enterprise prediction markets.

Posted on July 4, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Dawn Tevekelian Keller (formerly at Best Buy) does not write for Robin Hanson et al.: This blog is not geared toward the existing Prediction Market intelligentsia. While I would be honored to have fellow enthusiasts read and critique this blog, … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Best Buy, business cases, case studies, Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence that predicts, corporate prediction markets. private prediction markets, Dawn Keller, Dawn Tevekelian Keller, enterprise prediction markets, information aggregation, internal prediction markets, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Robin Hanson: My best idea was prediction markets.

Posted on June 29, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson‘s auto-biography (i.e., how Our Master Of All Universes views HimSelf): – Robin Hanson: Do you find it hard to summarize yourself in a few words? Me too. But I love the above quote. I have a passion, a … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, History, People | Tagged academia, academics, auto-biographies, betting markets, biographies, bios, Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence that predicts, economic science, Economics, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, forecasts, George Mason Univeristy, idea future markets, idea futures, idea futures markets, Our Master Of All Universes, Policy Analysis Market, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, professors, research scientists, researchers, Robin Hanson, scholars, tenure, universities | 3 Comments

In most cases, the team (including the best predictors) outshines the best predictor working alone.

Posted on June 29, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I had a question about VentureBeat’s statement, and Leslie Fine has answered it. VentureBeat: As everyone has known since the modern corporation was invented, employees such as executive assistants or production line managers often have better information and more accurate … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Business Administration, Cases, Collective Forecasting, Consulting | Tagged accuracy, Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence mechanisms, collective intelligence that predicts, corporate intelligence, CrowdCast, employees, information aggregation, information aggregation mechanisms, inklings, insights, Leslie Fine, organizational intelligence, Predictions, predictors, teams | Leave a comment

Midas Oracle has a de facto monopoly on “collective forecasting”.

Posted on June 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

If you type “collective forecasting” in the 3 main search engines, Midas Oracle pops up as #1 in the results. Thanks to Emile of NewsFutures and Prof Robin for their devotion and plain hard work in pushing this industry keyword … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Humor, Midas Oracle Statistics | Tagged Bing Search, Chris Masse's manhood, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, collective intelligence that predicts, Google Search, Humor, keywords, Midas Oracle, prediction markets, Search Engines, search results, Yahoo! Search | Leave a comment

What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about collective forecasting

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

In honor of our good doctor Robin Hanson, I am creating a new category, “collective forecasting“ —and the “forecasting” category becomes “traditional forecasting“, to mark the difference. (Can you sense it, Paul Hewitt?) The prof should take this as a … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, collective intelligence that predicts, forecasting, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Nate Silver, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | 2 Comments

Predicting = Forecasting –> Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

What is the etymology of the word forecasting? forecast (v.) c.1388, “to scheme,” from fore “before” + casten “contrive.” Meaning “predict events” first attested 1494. Previously: Apple dictionary on “predicting” vs “forecasting” Previously: Andrew Gelman on “predicting” vs “forecasting” – … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence that predicts, definitions, Explainers, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasts, predict, predicting, Predictions, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Posted on May 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Like the term? Leave a comment.

Posted in Midas Oracle Archives | Tagged Collective Intelligence, collective intelligence that predicts | Leave a comment

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