Tag Archives: CME Group
Regulated U.S. election markets might not be so hard.
Based on the arguments Hedgestreet presented in its response to the CFTC on event markets, the exchange has a fairly strong justification to self-certify and begin trading election futures, soon. While most event markets trade as binary options, and the CFTC has flexible discretion over options per 7 U.S.C. § 6c(b), the Commission does not [...]
Why Robin Hanson is right to freak out about the upcoming CFTC ruling on “event markets” (prediction markets)
Robin Hanson is trembling in his pants:
Coming soon after speculators were blamed for rising commodity prices, I fear this is bad news for hopes for legal prediction markets anytime soon.
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The CFTC decisions are politically sensible in 4 areas:
The CFTC will never allow real-money prediction markets on sports. That’s too close to gambling, for some critics. [...]
InTrade CEO John Delaney’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets) was so good that even a BetFair shareholder loved it.
Sean Park (who invested in Betfair at inception):
[...] I was heartened to read John Delaney’s (InTrade CEO) contribution [...]. I would certainly have endorsed this contribution – well crafted, robust, articulate and (imo) stating the blindingly obvious [...].
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Yes, his input was great, but, alas, it won’t win in the end.
The CFTC will probably rule out [...]
“In its upcoming proceedings, therefore, the CFTC should exempt prediction markets from regulations that would prevent them from flourishing, like requiring that such shares be traded on designated commodity exchanges.”
… wrote that academic guy in the Wall Street Journal. But he doesn’t mention that HedgeStreet and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (and the CBOT) are all for the “excluded commodities” and the “Designated Contract Makers” way.
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Honesty and fairness, when writing in a prestigious publication, would dictate that you mention your opponents’ opinions.
Academia = Ivory Tower.
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Will [...]
I come in agreement with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s comment to the CFTC.
I read it very quickly, and I agree with what they say —except the last section which I don’t get. I’ll tell you more tomorrow.
CME Group – (PDF file)
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CME’s comment is not far away from HedgeStreet’s take, which I told you I like. – (PDF file)
I suppose our good friend Jason Ruspini somewhat shares [...]
The last comments are up on the CFTC website, finally.
Thanks to Jason Ruspini for alerting me.
I’ll analyze all this tomorrow. I was off this afternoon.
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InTrade – (PDF file)
Robin Hanson – (PDF file)
Tom W. Bell et al. – (PDF file)
Tom W. Bell – (PDF file)
Chris F. Masse – (PDF file) —
Robin Hanson – (PDF file)
Iowa Electronic Markets – (PDF file)
Phil Goetz – (PDF [...]
A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
Other than the ISDA (which is an association of operators who do not trade on regulated derivative exchanges), HedgeStreet (a non-intermediated DCM) was the first representative of the regulated derivative exchange community to submit a comment to the CFTC. — (PDF file)
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HedgeStreet are saying that:
The political elections qualify as “excluded commodities” (as opposed to “exempted [...]
Will HedgeStreet USA, the hypothetical InTrade USA, and the hypothetical TradeFair USA, be regulated in the future by a merged SEC+CFTC regulatory structure?
That sounds like a good prediction market proposal.
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As you all know:
The SEC regulates the securities markets (which support capital formation).
The CFTC regulates the futures markets (which exist to discover prices).
The SEC is rules based, meaning it sets regulations that institutions must follow, while the CFTC is principles based, in that it sets broad [...]
CME Group = Chicago Mercantile Exchange + Chicago Board Of Trade
New website: CME Group
–> On Thursday, they sent out an e-mail to everybody saying that the two legacy websites will be closed just after the launch of the new website —that is, this Saturday, January 19, 2008.
–> Then, on Friday, they back-pedaled. The two legacy websites will remain on the Web for two short weeks. [...]
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