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- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
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- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
Tag Archives: Clinton
VP conditional probabilities
BetFair is running markets on both who will be the next vice president and who will be nominated by the two parties. As we’ve discussed before in other contexts, one can divide two probabilities like these to obtain a conditional … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, BetFair, Clinton, conditional probabilities, event derivative markets, event derivatives, guard, guard candidate, odds, Politics, prediction markets, probabilities, Republican Party, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidents, VP, VP conditional probabilities
BetFair, VP conditional probabilities
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The HubDub blog does not practice prediction market journalism, alas.
Take their latest political output: not a single word about HubDub’s prices / probabilities. So, what the HubDub blog does is simply political journalism, with a link to the related HubDub prediction market. Examples of prediction market journalism: Justin Wolfers … Continue reading
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Prediction Journalism
Tagged bloggers, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, Clinton, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, HubDub blog, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, Midas Oracle, Nigel Eccles, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, prices, probabilities, Wall Street Journal
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Huge quality improvement (well, considering that they started from 1,000 meters below the sea level) in the BetFair blog, lead by their resident prediction market guy, Mike Robb
The guy has shown commitment. Look at the semi-long list of posts he has produced. The guy has finally understood that people want red meat —dynamic charts (i.e., self-updating) that link to the said prediction markets. I observe, in passing, … Continue reading
BetFair-TradeFair (slightly) improve their blog, finally (it was about time) —and open 2 new sections: “prediction markets” and “financials”.
Here’s the vertical menu of the BetFair blog. Scroll down until you see “Politics”, and “Prediction Markets”. – - Here’s their section on politics: – Here’s their section on finance: – - My thoughts: Their “about” page still does not … Continue reading
Posted in Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Prediction Journalism, Resources - References
Tagged America, author, BetFair, BetFair blog, Clinton, David Jack, David Pennock, Editor, Eric Ziztwitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Finance, Google, informed BetFair trader, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, KING, Lance Fortnow, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Michael Robb, Mike Robb, Paul Tetlock, prediction exchanges, prediction market approach, prediction market journalism, prediction market writer, prediction markets, Professor, Robin Hanson, Search Engine, search engine spiders, TradeFair, TradeSports, United Kingdom, web-literate internationalist, writer
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Justin Wolfers will be glued on InTrade on Super Tuesday night.
Much better piece than last time. No more prediction market event study —quite boring and of dubious quality. This time, he outputs a quality forward-looking piece, with a good narrative. [...] While momentum tends to build slowly in polling data, … Continue reading
Posted in Exchanges & Markets
Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Clinton, distributed computing, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, Politics, prediction markets, Prime Minister, Senate, Super Tuesday, The WSJ editor, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, Wall Street Journal
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Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
Up at Caveat Bettor. Zogby poll numbers here. Intrade snapshots taken at 1pm. Here are the notable divergences between the pollster and the prediction market: NJ Dem: Intrade calling for Clinton, while Zogby in a tie. CA Rep: Intrade calling … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged Clinton, event derivative markets, event derivatives, General Electric GE 29485GE2 Three - Line Speakerphone w/ 3-way call Confere, InTrade, polls, prediction markets
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The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
If Clinton or Edwards wins, Zogby will be declared the winner. If any other candidate wins, the contest will be called as a draw. The Intrade snapshot was taken at 2:20pm today. Details posted at Caveat Bettor.
Zogby beats Intrade in predicting Nevada caucus winner Clinton.
and ties Intrade after seven state contests. Details here.