Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: CFM

Why Midas Oracle is opinionated: A vision based on false hypotheses is better than a lack of vision.

Who makes a good editor?
When Paul Milgrom recommended me to replace him as a co-editor of the American Economic Review, a post I held over nine years, one of the attributes he gave as a justification for the recommendation was that I am opinionated. At the time, I considered “opinionated” to mean ‘holding opinions without [...]

CFM and Midas Oracle are in the Top 10 of the Google Web Search results for “prediction markets”.

On top of that, CFM and Midas Oracle are listed all over in the Wikipedia webpage about prediction markets…
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Aren’t you fed up by those obnoxious bloggers (like Chris Masse) who constantly blog about blogging and bloggers?

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If the answer to that question is “no”, then do scan-read that interesting New York Times story about bloggers and blogging.
Yes, that NYT story was written by… a blogger (who usually blogs at ValleyWag) —if you were wondering.
Yes, many blogs are “opinionated” —as you can see in the picture below.

I need your input.

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As I told you yesterday, I have updated the “EXCHANGES” and “SOFTWARE” listings on Midas Oracle.
I am getting good feedback, thanks.
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Today, I am attempting to put any of these labels next to each exchange or software package:

CDA = Continuous Double Auction
MSR = Market Scoring Rules
DPMM = Dynamic Pari-Mutuel Market

SR = Scoring Rules
AMM = Automated Market [...]

I need your criticism.

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I have updated the “EXCHANGES” and “SOFTWARE” listings on Midas Oracle.

In the exchanges listing, I put the exchanges that apply the prediction market approach ahead of the others. And I put in bold the very liquid exchanges. Agree?
In both listings, I retained only the serious endeavors. Any missing items? – [The CFM lisiting of prediction [...]

Wikipedia, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, McKinsey, NewsFutures, Google, CFM, Inkling, and IEM, top the Google Web Search results for the “prediction markets” query.

Chris Masse’s first comment to the CFTC on “event markets” (prediction markets)

Chris F. Masse
Midas Oracle
cfm —– midasoracle —– com
chrisfmasse —– gmail —– com
July 6th, 2008
Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Centre
1155 21st St. NW
Washington D.C. 20581
Attention:
Office of the Secretariat- secretary@cftc.gov
Reference:
Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
73 FR 25669
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My name is Chris F. Masse, and I’m the publisher of CFM (a vertical portal to prediction [...]

Another one who thinks that Hillary Clinton will make it to the White House.

Michael Rozeff (who does not mention the possibility of manipulation):
[...] Hillary Clinton is more and more likely to become the next President of the United States. The price of her nomination contract on Intrade has jumped to the 60 area, meaning she has a 60 percent chance of winning the nomination. No one else is [...]

Another one who thinks that Hillary Clinton will make it.

YET ANOTHER MANIPULATOR.

Conservative (but not neo-con) blogger Steve Bainbridge (sitting in for Andrew Sullivan) at The Daily Dish (one of the most popular blogs on US politics):
Democratic nomination [on InTrade-TradeSports]: Hillary is running away with it (the last price on her contract was 54). Sounds right to me.


BetFair – Hillary Clinton as the [...]

Tyler Cowen’s Secret Blog

On Sunday, July 29, 2007, I asked the Midas Oracle readers to send me the URL of Tyler Cowen’s secret blog (which he gives out only to the readers of his new book). When Tyler Cowen got to know about my blog post, he found the experiment interesting and re-published my request on Marginal Revolution [...]

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