Prediction Markets = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Tag Archives: Blogosphere

Few people write up blog posts, but many read them (”scan-read” them, more exactly). That’s true for both Midas Oracle and the Blogosphere as a whole.

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WORLD-WIDE WEB EXCLUSIVE (PLEASE, DO CREDIT “MIDAS ORACLE” FOR THE SCOOP): Here’s what Nigel Eccles drinks when he works on the HubDub mission statement.

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Nigel Eccles:
Quoting HubDub forecasts in news stories about future events will be as common as quoting stock prices in financial stories is today or (in the UK) quoting betting odds for political elections.
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In my view, the only way our good friend Nigel Eccles would succeed would be to get HubDub on television —like our good [...]

Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.

[IMPORTANT NOTE: This present post is critical of one point expressed by Nigel Eccles, but, overall, I like this Scottish guy, and I enjoy HubDub's prediction markets a lot.]
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Nigel Eccles:
Quoting HubDub forecasts in news stories about future events will be as common as quoting stock prices in financial stories is today or (in the UK) [...]

How should prediction market firms (e.g., InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair-TradeFair) deal with Blogosphere’s criticism?

I have just spent 20 minutes reading the comments on that post. (The post itself is to be forgotten; all the comments are outstanding, though.)
Insightful thoughts about Internet marketing. Required reading for Mark Davies, John Delaney, Emile Servan-Schreiber, and the rest of our little prediction market clique.
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Great Links That Have Nothing To Do With Prediction Markets

1. A critical roundup of the blogging right-wing nuts. HILARIOUS.
2. Spot the giant machinery in picture #1. IMPRESSIVE.

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Google is THE problem, but BetFair should discover the solution.

Here’s why. Take a look at the following Google search results:
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PROBLEM #1: GOOGLE LINKS PROMINENTLY TO THE POST THAT PUBLICIZED THE RUMOR.

SOLUTION: Updating that post with the link to the post that debunks that rumor.
RISK: People won’t click on the debunking link.
UBBER SOLUTION: Replacing that rumor content with the debunking content??

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PROBLEM #2: THE OFFICIAL BETFAIR [...]

73% of journalists [*] sometimes or always use blogs in their research.

[*] = newspaper, magazine, TV, radio, and web journalists
Editors & Publishers
Via Henry Blodget (who is hilarious, as always)
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Implications for the field of prediction markets (InTrade-TradeFair, BetFair-TradeFair, Betdaq, HSX, NewsFutures, Inkling Markets, etc.):

The P.R. arm of the prediction market firms should also reach the bloggers —not just the journalists.
Prediction market firms should monitor the Blogosphere for [...]

Why the 3 Midas Oracle blogs, the InTrade-TradeSports blog, the BetFair-TradeFair blog, the Betdaq blog, the Iowa Electronic Markets blog, the Hollywood Stock Exchange blog, the NewsFutures blog, the Freakonomics blog, the Odd Head blog, the Alpha Thesis blog, the Caveat Bettor blog, etc., should all be part of a giant, inter-linked, meta conversation about prediction markets.

[I]n the blogosphere, [] competition is a good thing, not a bad thing. I want other finance blogs to launch, the more the better. And I want them to be written by keener minds than mine. The more that happens, the more traffic I’ll get – that’s the way the conversation works. Other media don’t [...]

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