The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and gullible bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst.

As we have blogged here many times, not every prediction market is created equal. Some are bound to aggregate bits of known information. Some others (e.g., the Olympic city prediction markets) are not able to do that, because no good information is leaking out. The IOC is a close aristocratic group that does not leak out good information. Those who forgot that and bet the farm on Chicago are now licking their wounds. You need an information analyst to assess whether a particular prediction market is pertinent.

– BetFair&#8217-s event derivative prices:

– InTrade&#8217-s event derivative prices:

– HubDub&#8217-s event derivative prices:

Who will recieve the winning bid to host the 2016 Olympics?

The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst.

I TOLD YOU SO:

– &#8220-Will Chicago get the Olympics? Dona€™t bet on it. Too risky.&#8220-

– The prediction markets are not able to forecast which country will get the Olympics. The IOC is a close aristocratic group that does not leak information. Hence, it is not possible to aggregate information.

– Once again, Ben Shannon made a very bad bet. He should read Midas Oracle more often &#8212-if he wants to avoid personal bankruptcy.

– Once again, we see that the P.R. agents of InTrade and BetFair (who both bragged about being able to predict Chicago) were overselling.

– BetFair&#8217-s event derivative prices (on the far right of the chart, you can see that the price went down to zero):

– InTrade&#8217-s event derivative prices (on the far right of the chart, you can see that the price went down to zero):

– HubDub&#8217-s event derivative prices:

Who will recieve the winning bid to host the 2016 Olympics?