Meta
-
Recent Posts
- Native apps are reigning on mobiles, but Jakob Nielsen strategically bets on web apps. — [LINK]
- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
Tag Archives: Barry Ritholtz
Why don’t they use prediction markets to settle their Community Reinvestment Act dispute?
Barry Ritholtz versus John Carney
Posted in Betting, Finance, Politics
|
Tagged Barry Ritholtz, bets, Community Reinvestment Act, debates, Finance, financial crisis, John Carney, subprimes
|
Leave a comment
Barry Ritholtz has a new home.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/ His blog (The Big Picture) is now powered by WordPress —of course. Best wishes to him. I disagree with Barry politically, and about what to think of the prediction markets —but Barry is a very nice person, and his … Continue reading →
Posted in Finance, Resources - References
|
Tagged Barry Ritholtz, bloggers, blogging, Finance, Open Media, The Big Picture, Wall Street
|
Leave a comment
If you want to increase the absolute accuracy of the outputs of the prediction markets, try (if you can) to increase the quality of the inputs.
Wanna better political prediction markets? Ask Gallup to generate better polls —because that’s what traders eat for breakfast. I have been telling that to Barry Ritholtz —but he stays on his position. Thanks to Barry for listening. Let’s move on … Continue reading →
Ubber finance blogger Barry Ritholtz believes in magic. He believes that, with more volumes on the event derivative markets, comes the Omniscience —capital “O”.
- Our good friend Barry Ritholtz.has persuaded himself that our real-money prediction markets suffer from an irremediable and fatal problem: liquidity on political event derivative markets is too thin for smart Wall Street people like him to take their market-generated … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators
|
Tagged accuracy, advanced indicators, Barry Ritholtz, clueless mainstream media, event derivative markets, event derivatives, finance blogger, Market Liquidity, New Hampshire, omniscience, polls, prediction markets, the New York Times, trades, transactions, volumes, Wall Street
|
5 Comments
Yet another guy, writing about prediction markets in the mainstream media, who does not master what he is talking about.
Via Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets, John McQuaid of Wired. It’s incoherent to start a rant against prediction markets by this upbeat line, “Prediction markets can be spookily accurate.” He blames the New Hampshire upset on poor liquidity. Where is … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Leading & Lagging Indicators
|
Tagged accuracy, Adam, Adam Siegel, Barry Ritholtz, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, John McQuaid, mainstream media, New Hampshire, prediction markets, the New York Times, Wired, wisdom of crowds
|
15 Comments
Would President John McCain be bad for the US economy?
- Barry Ritholtz’s comment: So far, nearly all readers understood this to be tongue in cheek (sarcasm). I knew, Barry.
Can InTrade traders correct their own biases?
Jed Christiansen talks back to Tyler Cowen: The biggest problem with people assessing the “success” of most prediction markets is that most people have problems understanding probabilities. If every [favorite] won, the market would actually be pretty inaccurate! Sports bettors … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets
|
Tagged accuracy, Barry Ritholtz, biases, David Leonhard, efficiency, Felix Salmon, Internet message board vowing, InTrade, Jed Christiansen, Justin Wolfers, lawyer, online-poker cheating scandal, poker player, prediction markets, Ravitch, sports bettors, Tyler Cowen, Zubin Jelveh
|
Leave a comment
WHY THE PREDICTION MARKETS WILL LIKELY F**K UP SUPER TUESDAY 2008.
Via Wall Street investor and blogger Barry Ritholtz, Wall Street Journal’ s June Kronholz: In Campaign 2008, Pollsters Are Biggest Losers • The Issue – Opinion-poll results were wide of the mark in early-voting states and will likely misjudge the … Continue reading →
Prediction Markets 101 — Chapter One: Interpreting The Probabilistic Predictions
“Thrutch”: Probabilities, Prediction Markets, and Popular Fallacies With Hillary’s surprise victory over Obama in the New Hampshire primary, pundits everywhere are decrying the allegedly ‘wrong’ odds that prediction markets like Intrade were displaying prior to the announced results. (As just … Continue reading →
Twenty-something Byrne Hobart gives Wall Street veteran Barry Ritholtz a run for his money.
Byrne Hobart: Your criticism has already been addressed (and translated): your problem with prediction markets is that it would be profitable to be a market-maker in one of them. Is there any valid criticism of prediction markets that isn’t an … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Meta)
|
Tagged accuracy, Barry Ritholtz, criticism, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hobart, prediction markets, Wall Street
|
Leave a comment