Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: automated market maker

InTrade should disclose what market-making automatism they are using to liquify the WSJ and FT play-money prediction markets.

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BetFair:
Betfair Robot on Exchange Games
Betfair Customer Services 13 Dec 16:51

From December 2007 Betfair has started employing its own software or “robots” to provide liquidity into the exchange games markets. It has been evident for some time that the activity of 3rd Party bots is essential to ensure that there is enough [...]

Bet2Give needs Peter McCluskey’s automated market maker.

Previously: An automated market maker subisdizes Robin Hanson’s presidential decision-aid markets on Intrade

An automated market maker subisdizes Robin Hanson’s presidential decision-aid markets on Intrade

Peter McCluskey:

Automated Market Maker for certain Intrade contracts
I have implemented subsidies to encourage trading of some conditional prediction market contracts that may provide useful information about the consequences of the 2008 presidential election, via a simple automated market maker (using an algorithm described near the end of http://hanson.gmu.edu/ifextropy.html). The subsidized market maker ought to provide [...]

Nowhere is it disclosed that the WSJ Political Market is trafficked by special bots.

Justin Wolfers in the Wall Street Journal:
The Wall Street Journal is running a political futures market where you can “trade” on candidates’ future performance or see how others assess their chances.
An important remark is that the WSJ Political Market is, number one, a play-money prediction exchange (unlike the real-money prediction exchanges that are studied closely [...]

Dead or Almost Dead


Dead:

CME Economic Derivatives — Auction format
Economic Derivatives – (U.S.A.) — CME + ICAP + Longitude (previously with Goldman Sachs) — These financial instruments are traded through a Universal Dutch Auction format —an automated parimutuel technique. — OTC market (which limits participants to eligible contract participants) excluded from regulation by the CFTC.
U.S. Idea Futures Exchange – [...]

FT Predict = play-money InTrade by the Financial Times

FT Predict – (ftpredict.com)
About FT Predict ™:
FT Predict™ is more than just a game. Predictive [*] markets collect the wisdom of the crowd* in a single dynamic price unit that can be far more sensitive to changes in the market than standard survey-based research. And a growing number of today’s leading companies embrace predictive market [...]

Inkling & Robin Hanson’s Market Scoring Rules

Inkling Markets is a new play-money prediction exchange. It does not use CDA, but MSR. It has recently been featured by TechCrunch, a very popular and informative Silicon Valley blog. Here’s what one of Inkling’s three two co-founders had to say, in a recent blog interview:
We use an automated market maker, an algorithm to set [...]

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