Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: arbitrator

My response to the CFTC on event contracts

Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it.
Given the political implications of the rise in commodity prices, this is not the best environment in [...]

BetFair’s new bet-matching logic + BetFair Malta’s trading on the multiples

BetFair:

Bet Matching Forum Q&A Session 19/03/08
Betfair Customer Services 17 Mar 11:50
As announced last week we’ll be hosting a Q&A session on the forum this Wednesday evening (19th March) between 6pm and 7pm (UK Time). The purpose of this Q&A session is to answer questions regarding BetFair’s new bet matching logic. To [...]

Policy Event Derivatives

The essential purpose of Risk Markets and Politics at this point is to advance the ideas of public policy markets and tax futures. To this end, we can once again show that such markets help to address well-known problems that arise in government.
Consider the typical “special interest” problem as described in public choice economics. [...]

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