Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Andrew McAfee

Andrew McAfee’s anecdote on enterprise prediction markets is a load of bullsh*t.

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 2, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Paul Hewitt:
I’m curious why Andrew McAfee would cite this example in support of prediction markets. Though he mentions that his executive students had conducted a “simple poll”, in fact, they really created a pari-mutuel market, which provided the “risk and gain”. It was not a prediction market, as the executives believed it was. There was [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Also tagged , ,

Andrew McAfee wanna share an anecdote about EPMs with you.

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 2, 2009 — 1 Comment

I am curious about what Paul Hewitt will think of this.

Posted in Cases, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged ,

Surprise, Surprise: Andrew McAfee is pulling for CrowdCast.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 7, 2009 — Leave a Comment

He loves it.
[Disclosure: He is on the CowdCast board. ]
Andrew McAfee asks a question at the bottom of his post. Here is my answer. The reason for not adopting collective forecasting (prediction markets being the most complex method of information aggregation that predicts) would be that the benefit (objectivity in forecasting) is too [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , ,

Prof Andrew McAfee steals predictive info from NewsFutures, and beats his students with it.

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 23, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Andrew McAfee:
Two questions to wind up this post. First, how could I have made better use of crowd wisdom and other available information to make better March Madness picks? And do you have any tips on how to be a good Twitter-assisted public speaker?  Leave a comment, please, and let us know.
My answer to his [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , ,

“Enterprise 2.0 is the use of emergent social software platforms within companies, or between companies and their partners or customers.”

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 20, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Andrew McAfee
PS: Prediction markets are included in the mix —along with wikis, blogs, social networking software, RSS, links, search, and tags.
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Posted in Business, Business Administration, Consulting | Also tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Prediction Markets at Google — by Peter A. Coles, Karim R. Lakhani, Andrew McAfee

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 20, 2008 — 2 Comments

Alas, that paper is not free to access.
Andrew McAfee’s post reveals this:
Prediction markets were (sic) very much like stock markets. They contained securities, each of which had a price. [...]
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Not sure why they used the past tense.
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Prediction markets are in fact event derivative markets.
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Papers from Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz, Koleman Strumpf, etc., [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Enterprise prediction markets now part of Harvard MBA.

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 23, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Managing in the Information Age – (Spot the Google mention.) – A course by Andrew McAfee
Via our good friend George Tziralis of AskMarkets

Posted in Miscellaneous | Also tagged , , , , , ,

I can’t think of a single reason not to deploy enterprise prediction markets.

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 7, 2007 — Leave a Comment

… said [*] Harvard Business School Associate Professor Andrew McAfee.
[*] Original verbatim is this: I can’t think of a single reason not to deploy predictive markets.

Any market is somewhat “predictive”. Our prediction markets are specially designed for easy trading and easy interpretation.

Posted in Consulting | Also tagged ,

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