Tag Archives: Andrew Gelman

Political Forecasting: Justin Wolfers vs. Nate Silver

Posted on October 24, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

- Andrew Gelman nailed it: In summary, “momentum” can exist, but the places where you’ll see it is in races where current public opinion is out of step with best predictions. The mere information that a race has a 5-point … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Andrew Gelman on forecasting and statistical models

Posted on September 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Andrew Gelman visits Google’s Mountain View headquarters: The 2008 presidential election and state polls:

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Science | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bayesian Statistics — Scholarpedia Edition

Posted on August 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Bayesian Statistics — Scholarpedia Edition Recommended by Him:

Posted in Resources - References, Science | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

RE: Andrew Gelman versus Robin Hanson

Posted on July 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Andrew Gelman is the most wonderful forecasting expert on Earth. He is great. He is a giant. I like a lot of what he has been retorting to Robin Hanson. However, Andrew Gelman didn’t answer the Robin Hanson challenge, that … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Robin Hanson to Andrew Gelman: You are a smart prof, but my forecasting methods are better —which means, overall, that I am smarter than you.

Posted on July 16, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: Since I’ve granted that my story is contrary to what people usually say and assume, saying “I assume” on funding just isn’t much of a contrary argument.  “My impression” on students isn’t much better. Your funding patrons may … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Robin Hanson is a web community super star.

Posted on July 11, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Andrew Gelman: I’ll write something fuller on my own blog, but I have to admit I envy Robin the lively and thoughtful participation he gets here. Robin is certainly doing something right to be generating this sort of discussion every … Continue reading →

Posted in Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Andrew Gelman makes more sense than Robin Hanson.

Posted on June 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Andrew Gelman: I would go with the commonsensical view that academia is primarily an institution for teaching and research. I think of the credentialing as a byproduct. Sounds logical.

Posted in Psychology | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Andrew Gelman teaches a valuable lesson to Robin Hanson: Quit bragging about your high IQ, man.

Posted on June 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

“there’s more to life –even to academic life– than being smart and insightful.” Excellent point.

Posted in Psychology | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Institutional Decision Analysis

Posted on May 28, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Institutional Decision Analysis – a concept by Andrew Gelman The term “decision analysis” has multiple meanings in Bayesian statistics. When we use the term here, we are not talking about problems of parameter estimation, squared error loss, etc. Rather, we … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Prof Andrew Gelman on “predicting” and “forecasting”

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Andrew Gelman: I suspect the words have different meanings in different contexts.  In statistics, “prediction” is often used even when the result has already happened:  that is, if you have a model, y = f(x) + error, then f(x) is … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment