Tag Archives: advanced indicators

Ubber finance blogger Barry Ritholtz believes in magic. He believes that, with more volumes on the event derivative markets, comes the Omniscience —capital “O”.

- Our good friend Barry Ritholtz.has persuaded himself that our real-money prediction markets suffer from an irremediable and fatal problem: liquidity on political event derivative markets is too thin for smart Wall Street people like him to take their market-generated … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Are David Pennock’s search engine prediction markets the worst marketing disaster since the New Coke?

Only 2 trades (yes, “two”), one month later: Are there any good advanced indicators of future search engine market shares? I was not entirely convinced. Equally, with Felix Salmon, I’m asking whether there are good advanced indicators of future earthquakes. … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Liquidity | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Once again, a BetFair spin doctor misunderstands the prediction market approach.

Via Niall O’Connor, the Cyprus Mail (citing BetFair spin doctor Michael Robb): Political markets are different to sports markets because the people betting have an interest in the subject such as academics, journalists, people who work at it in their … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment