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Tag Archives: 2016 Summer Olympics
Who has the best analysis for Chicago’s failed bid for the Olympics?
Prof Michael Giberson: I think the “small, secretive committee†explanation is weak []. Bradbury does an excellent job sifting through the shifting coalitions revealed in the three rounds of IOC voting. Neither Madrid nor Toyko showed any significant ability to … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged 2016 Summer Olympics, accuracy, BetFair, Chicago, Collective Forecasting, HubDub, International Olympic Committee, InTrade, IOC, leading indicators, Olympics, prediction markets
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Never try to divine the IOC decisions on Olympics venues, Mike.
Prof Michael Giberson, No “careful observer knew this in advance” (about Chicago being a lemon), for the simple reason that if they knew, they would have downgraded Chicago on the InTrade and BetFair prediction markets, and Ben Shannon would have … Continue reading
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged 2016 Summer Olympics, accuracy, BetFair, Chicago, Collective Forecasting, HubDub, International Olympic Committee, InTrade, IOC, leading indicators, Olympics, prediction markets
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Could we have divined that Chicago was a lemon?
Prof Michael Giberson: Chris, isn’t it odd for you to state “Chicago had not the slightest chance to begin with.†The phrase implies you believe that the probability of Chicago’s selection was near zero all along, but you have been … Continue reading
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged 2016 Summer Olympics, accuracy, Chicago, Collective Forecasting, International Olympic Committee, IOC, leading indicators, Olympics, prediction markets
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Midas Oracle is the only website in the world to have told you *not* to bet on Chicago —and to stay (far) away from any Olympics venue prediction market.
Previously: Will Chicago get the Olympics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky. Had Ben Shannon listened to us, he would have spared $6,000 —yes, that’s six thousand US dollars. Next: Could we have divined that Chicago was a lemon?
Why you won’t hear Robin Hanson et al. about the Chicago Olympics prediction market disaster
- Because they are not interested in telling you the truth about prediction markets. – They are interested in propagating a myth, rather. – Don’t pay $400 for a vendor phone-booth conference on prediction markets, where their merits are hyper … Continue reading
Posted in Ethics, Midas Oracle Archives
Tagged 2016 Summer Olympics, accuracy, Chicago, International Olympic Committee, IOC, Olympics
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The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and gullible bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst.
Look up prof Michael Giberson’s comment below my highly intelligent post, “Why an analyst should assess each newly created prediction market“. And compare it with Paul Kedrowski’s bad analysis, followed by InTrade CEO John Delaney’s equally bad analysis. Read the … Continue reading
Posted in Midas Oracle Archives, News
Tagged 2016 Summer Olympics, accuracy, Chicago, International Olympic Committee, IOC, Olympics
2 Comments
Professor Thomas Rietz (Iowa Electronic Markets) was so wrong on the usefulness of prediction markets about the 2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago.
Chicago Olympic Market Might Have Value, Says Reitz (Chicago Tribune, April 17) A credible source of information about Chicago’s chances of hosting the 2016 Olympics would have value, says columnist Bill Barnhart. Local real estate developers, hotel operators, employment agencies, … Continue reading
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged 2016 Summer Olympics, accuracy, Bet, BetFair, bets, betting markets, Chicago, event derivative markets, forecasts, HubDub, International Olympic Committee, InTrade, IOC, Iowa Electronic Markets, Olympics, prediction markets, Predictions, Thomas Rietz
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