Tag Archives: 2008 US presidential election

Prediction markets didn’t “revolutionize” decision-making —and will never do. However, they are a nice condiment to the classic forecasting toolkit.

Posted on February 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I have spent several hours re-reading the 2004 AEI-Brookings book, “Information Markets” (by which they mean “prediction markets”). It is a collection of un-enlightening research articles —except for the IEM article, which is outstanding, both on the factual and theoretical … Continue reading →

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Prediction markets compute facts and expertise quicker that the mass media do.

Posted on January 21, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Political prediction markets react (with a small delay) to political polls —just like the political experts and the mass media do, too. Hence, in order to discover their true social utility, the prediction markets (which are tools of intelligence) should … Continue reading →

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A graph with a data point for each state, with the horizontal axis representing the polling data and the vertical axis representing the Intrade contract price

Posted on January 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Via Andrew Gelman On November 3, 2008:

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The 2 links you should follow, first thing, this Monday morning

Posted on November 17, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- A portrait of Nate Silver in the New York Times. – Jed Christiansen’s post-mortem on the 2008 US presidential elections. I’ll have many remarks to add to his analysis.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments