Category Archives: Prediction Journalism

Drudge links directly to InTrade prediction markets, bypassing journalos. — [SCREENSHOT]

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Once again, Yahoo!’s David Rothschild forgets to cite InTrade and BetFair as probability sources. — [OOPS]

Here. Previously.

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Knowns and unknowns of the 2012 presidential elections — [LINK]

“We gather information from a variety of sources (some of which are themselves information aggregators), including prediction markets, polls, web search, social activity, games, and historical precedent, and combine it together to produce a Consensus Prediction that is as unbiased, … Continue reading

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Yahoo’s David Rothschild scraps market info from InTrade (and BetFair?), does not cite them, and does not link to them. — [UPDATED]

David Pennock’s little protégé should receive a crash course about citing sources. C’est minable. UPDATE: David Rothschild e-mails me to say he forgot to link to InTrade and BetFair in that story, at publication time, but he added the links … Continue reading

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Though not a legal, registered financial advisor, Justin Wolfers hands out financial ‘advice’ to anyone who is foolish enough to listen. — [SCREENSHOT]

More. – “A financial adviser or stock broker should be licensed to provide any consultation on investment in securities.” -

Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism, Predictions - Forecasts, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Nate Silver criticizes InTrade for its short-lived Obama bounce following Bin Laden’s assassination. — [CHART]

Scenarios.

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Betting @ BetFair remains a mediocre-quality publication —triple alas.

I have spent some time this morning browsing it, and I am sad to report that the quality of this news website is still very low. – The navigation is crappy. For instance, clicking on the BetFair logo will bring … Continue reading

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The value of prediction market journalism, which doesn’t produce any scoop, is zero.

Felix Salmon (in a piece about the ROI of web publishing): As real-money prediction markets become legal in the US, there’s surely going to be a lot of money in writing about them and driving rich readers to them. Total … Continue reading

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BRITISH CRETINERY: The Financial Times features the InTrade probabilities —not the BetFair ones.

This is really stupid. The decerebrated journalos at the FT chose to feature the illiquid, Ireland-based, un-regulated InTrade prediction markets instead of the very liquid, UK-based, regulated BetFair prediction markets on the next British congress. Makes no sense at all. … Continue reading

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

PROVEN AND DOCUMENTED: Joe Weisenthal is drunken with his own manipulation paranoia.

Joe is going off the deep end. Market noises are now interpreted as the intergalactic battle between the pro-HCR and the anti-HCR, who are both seeking to manipulate the InTrade prediction markets. No evidence whatsoever is displayed. P.S: I am … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments