Category Archives: Collective Decision Making

Larry Page on decision making — [VIDEO]

Posted on September 28, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

One of the interesting things that we’ve noticed is that companies correlate on decision making and speed of decision making. There are basically no companies that have good slow decisions. There are only companies that have good fast decisions. I … Continue reading →

Posted in Business, Business Administration, Collective Decision Making, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Entrepreneurship, Individual Intelligence - Anti Consensus, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged decision making, decisions, Google, Larry Page | 2 Comments

After years of pretending being a prediction market consultant, Robin Hanson finally confesses nobody has ever cared about his stuff. — [LINK]

Posted on July 13, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

The Emperor of enterprise prediction markets is naked. Robin Hanson: I can confirm that this disinterest is real. For example, when I try to sell firms on internal prediction markets wherein employees forecast things like sales and project completion dates, … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, Collective Intelligence, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, forecasting accuracy, predicting, predicting accuracy, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

Collective Forecasting a la Robin Hanson – [SLIDES]

Posted on December 5, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, Economics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, information, information economics, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

CrowdCast’s Leslie Fine talks about “the cloud and the crowd”.

Posted on July 10, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

22 into.

Posted in Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Collective Intelligence, CrowdCast, enterprise intelligence, enterprise prediction markets, Leslie Fine, prediction markets | 1 Comment

Robin Hanson bores his students with Futarchy. –> He is asked to apply his concept to Himself.

Posted on May 6, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

A commenter on his blog (Bill): Why not experiment at GMU? Have the students run the university using Futarchy principals. They pick the goals, then you use markets. You can even start on a smaller scale, a class. Report back … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, futarchy, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Robin Hanson’s blah blah on futarchy (using conditional prediction markets to govern a country) — [VIDEO]

Posted on February 11, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson debates a Mencius Moldbug on prediction markets, decision markets, and… futarchy: Foresight 2010 debate: Futarchy from Monica Anderson on Vimeo. Download this post to watch the video —if your feed reader does not show it to you. Who … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, conditional prediction markets, decision making, decision markets, event derivative markets, Foresight 2010, futarchy, governance, governing, governments, Mencius Moldbug, policy decisions, Politics, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Can a conditional prediction market play chess?

Posted on January 18, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

The Hanson–Moldbug debate

Posted in Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged chess, conditional prediction markets, decision markets, Mencius Moldbug, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Debate is raging between Robin Hanson and the futarchy critics

Posted on January 8, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

- Robin Hanson comments on Paul Hewitt’s blog. – Paul Hewitt comments on Eric Crampton’s blog. – Paul Hewitt comments on Robin Hanson’s blog. Many exchanges with Robin Hanson. Read it all. – Paul Hewitt: [...] My point is that … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Politics | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, conditional prediction markets, decision markets, event derivative markets, futarchy, governments, Paul Hewitt, Politics, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Jim Rogers: How to make millions on the financial markets without using Robin Hanson’s collective forecasting or James Surowiecki’s wisdom of crowds

Posted on December 4, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Jim Rogers in the FT: What is the secret of your success? As I was not smarter than most people, I was willing to work harder than most. I was prepared to examine conventional wisdom. If everyone thinks one way, … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Business, Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Finance, Financial Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Individual Intelligence - Anti Consensus | Tagged conventional wisdom, Finance, Financial Markets, investing, investments, Jim Rogers, trading, wealth | Leave a comment

Robin, just because we donâ€™t have another method of accurately predicting an outcome doesnâ€™t mean we have to be so appreciative when a prediction market comes up with a forecast just before the outcome is revealed.

Posted on November 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- First missile —just an appetizer. – Second missile: A critical review of Robin Hanson’s paper, “A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy”.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, Collective Forecasting, Paul Hewittt, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

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