Category Archives: Collective Decision Making
Robin Hanson’s blah blah on futarchy (using conditional prediction markets to govern a country) — [VIDEO]
Robin Hanson debates a Mencius Moldbug on prediction markets, decision markets, and… futarchy:
Foresight 2010 debate: Futarchy from Monica Anderson on Vimeo.
Download this post to watch the video —if your feed reader does not show it to you.
Who cares about that Mencius Moldbug anyway?
Previously.
Can a conditional prediction market play chess?
The Hanson–Moldbug debate
Debate is raging between Robin Hanson and the futarchy critics
- Robin Hanson comments on Paul Hewitt’s blog.
- Paul Hewitt comments on Eric Crampton’s blog.
- Paul Hewitt comments on Robin Hanson’s blog. Many exchanges with Robin Hanson. Read it all.
- Paul Hewitt:
[...] My point is that the case for prediction markets has not been made, at all. There is a tiny bit of proof that [...]
Jim Rogers: How to make millions on the financial markets without using Robin Hanson’s collective forecasting or James Surowiecki’s wisdom of crowds
Jim Rogers in the FT:
What is the secret of your success?
As I was not smarter than most people, I was willing to work harder than most. I was prepared to examine conventional wisdom. If everyone thinks one way, it is likely to be wrong. If you can figure out that it is wrong, you are [...]
Robin, just because we don’t have another method of accurately predicting an outcome doesn’t mean we have to be so appreciative when a prediction market comes up with a forecast just before the outcome is revealed.
- First missile —just an appetizer.
- Second missile: A critical review of Robin Hanson’s paper, “A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy”.
We should not use prediction markets in the climate change problematic.
Paul Hewitt:
While it may be possible to operate public policy prediction markets for some issues, their use in the climate change or global warming debate is questionable. Not only can there be no guarantee of manipulation-free markets, we wouldn’t even know if market predictions had been manipulated. If actual public policy were to [...]
Long-term prediction markets are usually very inaccurate for most of their durations.
Paul Hewitt to David Pennock:
With all due respect, that testing was done on markets 30 days before they closed. As I noted, time had almost run out on each of the markets. Consequently, one might expect an almost perfect accuracy and calibration.
The problem with these long-term markets is that they are usually very inaccurate for [...]
Robin Hanson’s long-term prediction markets are not very useful for proper decision-making.
Paul Hewitt sends Robin Hanson packing.
Paul Hewitt:
Just because there are long-term prediction markets does not mean that they are useful. Yes, there are a few long-term markets on ideosphere.com. Rather than dissect each one, I’ll look at two of them.
NUKE – started 10/10/1995 to predict whether nuclear weapons will be used before 1/1/2010. Ten years [...]
Why Nate Silver is wrong about the usefulness of long-term prediction markets: IT DIDN’T WORK. IT IS A PATENTED FAIL.
Nate Silver becomes a little Robin Hanson fanboy… after just a lunch with the Master.
ACT ONE: Nate Silver lunched with Robin Hanson, one month ago, to interview him for his future book about forecasting.
ACT TWO: Robin Hanson has published yet another post pumping up prediction markets for solving every problem on Earth —this time, yelling [...]
The Perfect Profile for Prediction Market Success
Playing for Keeps – by CrowdCast’s Leslie Fine
These executives vocally support a new way of forecasting and embrace the fact that there is knowledge that is not getting to their desks.
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