Yearly Archives: 2007

YES, Harry Potter will survive J.K. Rowling’s 7th installment of the saga, The Deathly Hallows

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Via Matt Drudge, via EITB 24, a hacker whose pseudonym is “Gabriel” tells you the ending of the book, The Deathly Hallows, yet to be published. He claims to have hacked one of the computers of the publisher. The bottom line is that Harry does not die, it seems.

I have just bought all the NewsFutures “Harry Potter will survive” contracts I could snap at $80. Plus, I was granted 10 pairs of contracts thru this program, and I sold the 10 “no” contracts to some misinformed trader at $20. Here’s my VIP page at NewsFutures. [I previously flip-flopped on this issue. :) ]

Just a short note on the NewsFutures prediction exchange: very usable. Our good doctor EJSS and his employees are detail oriented, and I think that’s the way to go. As I have written 10 times on Midas Oracle, this is about satisfying the sophisticated bettors, not the Joe Six-Packs. The folks at Pop Sci’s PPX should take notice. You know, I am on the receiving end of many youngsters’ claims to be “the next NewsFutures”. Well, my message to them: get up earlier, boys.

Here are all the blog posts and comments written about Harry Potter on Midas Oracle.

If I’m right to trust the hacker “Gabriel” and I win this game, then I’ll publish a victory blog post against Niall O’Connor and Michael Giberson. Niall O’Connor swallowed the William Hill story (All the money was on Harry Potter to die, so they stopped taking bets) like a lake carp swallows a peanut butter doughball. But, that’s too early. Let’s wait and see.

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Harry Potter will survive The Deathly Hallows.

© NewsFutures

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UPDATE: The sentiment of the majority favors the Niall O’Connor theory that puts William Hill at the receiving end of insider information (”Harry Potter dies”), lately. And the NewsFutures market-generated probability would reflect the (misinformed, on this one) “wisdom of crowds”, which kind of senses that an author for kids will not make the hero die. We’ll see.

UPDATE #2: eWeek.com

milw0rm is a group of politically motivated “hacktivists” whose most famous exploit was penetrating the computers of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) in Bombay, the primary nuclear research facility of India, on June 3, 1998. They have anti-nuclear and pro-peace agendas and, in this case, anti-Harry Potter and pro-Pope Benedict XVI.

UPDATE: The contract of the Harry Potter event derivative at NewsFutures may be flawed.

NEXT: THE FATE OF HARRY POTTER IN J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH BOOK, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: prediction market vs. bookmaker + NEWSFUTURES JUDGES THAT HARRY POTTER IS STILL ALIVE AT THE END OF J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH NOVEL, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS.

 

How to communicate clearly and concisely

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Robin Hanson:

To me, an ideal paper first clearly and concisely states a claim it will defend, in its title and abstract. The introduction quickly reviews the context and restates the claim, summarizing its supporting argument. The body of the paper makes good on those promises, filling out the detail, clearly flagging all required assumptions. And then the conclusion restates the claim and argument and points to further implications.

Author Profile&nbsp-Editor and Publisher of Midas Oracle .ORG .NET .COM &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s mugshot &#8212- Contact Chris Masse &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s LinkedIn profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s FaceBook profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s Google profile &#8212- Sophia-Antipolis, France, E.U. Read more from this author&#8230-

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Are David Pennock’s search engine prediction markets the worst marketing disaster since the New Coke?
  • Midas Oracle is incontestably [*] the best vertical portal to prediction markets.
  • Comment spam paid by Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures-Bet2Give
  • BetFair Games needs a Swedish provider to develop its gambling offerings.
  • When Markets Beat the Polls – Scientific American Magazine
  • Robin Hanson has some fanboy in India. Great. Tiny caveat: The parroting Indian writer does not acknowledge Robin Hanson by name.
  • Molecular Nanotechnology

Some prediction exchanges should follow the BetZip.com model.

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Says the all-excited Mike Linksvayer &#8211-(I&#8217-ve never seen him that excited, apart from the perspective of a George W. Bush impeachment):

Great idea! A PM should do this, right now, taking care to create real money incentives and not encourage risky bets. I’ve thought of the possibility of a no-downside-risk PM that only shared advertising revenue with players proportionately to their performance, but the money involved would be too little to be meaningful, or so I guessed. However, if BetZip is right[,] the money could be made “real” by permitting arbitrarily large subscription fees.

On the Betcha.com front, just a follow-up note. Its founders (Nick Jenkins) has 4 or 5 counter-arguments to Tom Bell&#8217-s take, but won&#8217-t share them publicly (i.e., with his competitors). &#8220-He&#8217-ll share them with the judge&#8221-, replied the ironic Deep Throat. :) We wish Nick Jenkins the very best.