Monthly Archives: September 2009

The truth about CrowdClarity’s extraordinary predictive power (which impresses Jed Christiansen so much)

Paul Hewitt: At first blush, it appears that we finally have a bona fide prediction market success! If we’re going to celebrate, I’d suggest Prosecco, not Champagne, however. There are a number of reasons to be cautious. These represent only … Continue reading

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Dan Bull’s marvelous musical video clip

“Using a single sheet of paper and a bolex camera, Michel drew images a line at a time and photographed the progression so that when played back, the images looked like they were drawing themselves.” “Doorways” — From Dan Bull’s … Continue reading

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Who should you follow on Twitter?

Tyler Cowen asks, “Who should I follow on Twitter?“. – Don’t follow people who talk about their private life. (e.g., Jed Christiansen) – Don’t follow people who tweet too much. (e.g., Guy Kawasaki) – Follow people who publish either good … Continue reading

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Finally, a positive corporate prediction market case study… —well, according to Jed Christiansen

Jed Christiansen: To recap, the prediction market beat the official GM forecast (made at the beginning of the month) easily, which isn’t hugely surprising considering the myopic nature of internal forecasting. But the prediction market also beat the Edmunds.com forecast. … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Business, Cases, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 12 Comments

Santi Debriano, a great Jazz bassist

I saw him playing Jazz at Saint-Cézaire-Sur-Siagne, France, in August 2009 (where he played with guitarist Roni Ben-Hur and drummer Steve Williams). I love his style. He is great. Santi Debriano @ Wikipedia – Santi Debriano @ MySpace – Santi … Continue reading

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French film documentary about collective intelligence in the animal world

L’intelligence collective, une spécificité animale ? For those of you who understand French. Addendum: English-speaking videos about collective intelligence

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eBay CEO John Donahoe: “We thought auctions was a religion. Auctions are nothing more than a format.”

eBay CEO Talks about Core Values: Auctions Are Not a Religion.

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The future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today, wars, massive government debt defaults and the impoverishment of large segments of Western society.

“The future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today, wars, massive government debt defaults and the impoverishment of large segments of Western society.” Download this post to watch the Marc … Continue reading

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What is the liquidity on InTrade’s financial prediction markets?

My dear honorable Carlos Graterol, I acknowledge you are a little InTrade fanboy, and that flies OK in my book. You say there are 3,000 daily transactions on the daily DJIA prediction markets. (It was much higher than that before … Continue reading

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Some prediction market companies brag too much.

Here is what Cédric Gaspoz has published on the San Francisco clown’s e-mailing list: Hi, thanks to “Google” [the description line concocted by the website owners and which Google displays in its search results] or better, thanks to their own … Continue reading

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