Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Daily Archives: June 29th, 2009

June 28’s BetFair millionaire story (about Elliott Short) in the News Of The World

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 29, 2009 — Leave a Comment

June 28’s BetFair millionaire story (about Elliott Short) in the News Of The World has been retracted by the UK tabloid. See why at the bottom of this post.
- Find the cache here.
By Simon Ward, 28/06/2009
A SACKED 22-year-old trainee City trader today reveals how he won a staggering £20 MILLION in a YEAR . . [...]

Posted in Betting, Ethics, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , ,

BetFair is going to make money in America…

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 29, 2009 — Leave a Comment

…”even without changes to betting laws.”

Posted in Business, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Behind Nigel Eccles (of HubDub fame), the remains of the West Pier in Brighton, England.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 29, 2009 — 5 Comments

As for me, I would rather have a picture taken of moi with the Eiffel Tower in the background (or some other monument devoted to the greatness of humanity) —as opposed to a burned-to-the-core carcass.
British humor, I suppose.

Posted in Miscellaneous | Tagged , , , , , ,

Why don’t they use prediction markets to settle their Community Reinvestment Act dispute?

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 29, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Barry Ritholtz versus John Carney

Posted in Betting, Finance, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Our industry needs a third Wikipedia page.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 29, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Collective Forecasting @ Wikipedia
Prediction Markets @ Wikipedia
Betting Exchanges @ Wikipedia
–> Wikipedians, let’s create a Wikipedia page on collective forecasting.

Posted in Resources - References | Tagged , , ,

Robin Hanson: My best idea was prediction markets.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 29, 2009 — 3 Comments

Robin Hanson’s auto-biography (i.e., how Our Master Of All Universes views HimSelf):

-
Robin Hanson:
Do you find it hard to summarize yourself in a few words? Me too.
But I love the above quote. I have a passion, a sacred quest, to understand everything, and to save the world. I am addicted to “viewquakes”, insights which [...]

Posted in Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, History, People | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

In most cases, the team (including the best predictors) outshines the best predictor working alone.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 29, 2009 — Leave a Comment

I had a question about VentureBeat’s statement, and Leslie Fine has answered it.
VentureBeat:
As everyone has known since the modern corporation was invented, employees such as executive assistants or production line managers often have better information and more accurate insight than their management.
CrowdCast’s Leslie Fine:
The claim here is not that the administrator knows more than the [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Business Administration, Cases, Collective Forecasting, Consulting | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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