Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Daily Archives: June 19th, 2009

eLab eXchange – Will Twitter Rule the World?

Written by Lawrence Wright on June 19, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Will Twitter Rule the World?
Rising along side of the social networking revolution, Twitter, the short message and microblogging service, has become nearly as popular as social network sites like Facebook. With China blocking Twitter on the anniversary of Tienanmen Square, and Time magazine publishing a “how-to,” it’s fair to say that Twitter is now a [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Genesis | Tagged , , , , , ,

Accurate prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 19, 2009 — 11 Comments

Stupidity, as defined by Prof Panos…
Panos Ipeirotis:
[...] It is largely stupid to call “successful” a continuous market that gets the average right but has a very high spread over the outcomes. Similarly, it is stupid to call a success a discrete market that is “correct” (i.e., the frontrunner being the actual outcome) when the contract [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged ,

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