Wall Street Journal – $$$
PartyGaming PLC said Tuesday it has reached a non-prosecution agreement with U.S. authorities over its defunct operations there, with the online gambling group agreeing to pay a $105 million… fee.
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Daily Archives: April 8, 2009
Prediction markets about science and technology
http://science.newsfutures.com/
NewsFutures + Science &- Vie (a science magazine published in the F country)
In French, alas, but I am sure Emile would lend the same technology to some English-speaking magazines in the U.S. or the U.K. that would want to open the same kind of prediction exchange for science.
Ten people are bidding on a stock at 90, while 100 people are offering to sell it at 91. What price is the next trade?
Slate:
Interviewees often say that since there are more sellers than buyers, the sellers get to determine the price. That logic usually yields an answer between 90 and 91. That’-s exactly wrong. “-They’-re not thinking about what’-s going on in the real world,”- says Rubczyk. In reality, when there are more sellers than buyers, the price falls. So the next sale would probably be in the mid- to low 80s.
“-Some candidates would say you can’-t answer that question, because there’-s no formula,”- says Rusczyk. “-If that makes their heads explode, that’-s a problem.”-
What would our Jason Ruspini have answered to that quiz?
Prediction markets in the pharmaceutical industry
Truly bizarre “-research”-.