Monthly Archives: March 2009

Track records + Prediction markets — Will they mix up well?

Posted on March 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Yet another reason why we should *not* call it the “Prediction Market Institute”… Nicholas Kristof: So what about a system to evaluate us prognosticators? Professor Tetlock suggests that various foundations might try to create a “trans-ideological Consumer Reports for punditry,” … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Midas Oracle Project, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

WeatherBill can be thought of a) as expressive insurance b) as a combinatorial prediction market with an automated market maker.

Posted on March 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

This clarification from our good doctor David Pennock shows how indispensable this research scientist is to small people like us. Without David Pennock, the field of prediction markets would collapse like a castle of cards. Ha! ha! ha!… As a … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Hedging & Insurance | Tagged , | 2 Comments

GET RICH QUICK BY EXPLOITING WEATHERBILL’S BUG.

Posted on March 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Report via our good doctor David Pennock —proving once again how indispensable this blogging research scientist is to the field of prediction markets. ( – Wooarf, wooarf, wooarf.) -

Posted in Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Hedging & Insurance, Miscellaneous | Tagged , | 1 Comment

American Civics Exchange… a little update

Posted on March 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

On February 10, 2009, the American Civics Exchange (see our previous post) received an official acknowledgment from David Stawick, Secretary of the CFTC. The CFTC website, however, does not yet list ACE in their directory of eBOTs. It will, ultimately … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Will enterprise prediction markets ever really take off? — Now, *my* answer.

Posted on March 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

It is a wonder, therefore, why more companies have not adopted them. No need to “wonder“. The Economist listed the hurdles that corporations face when they try out enterprise prediction markets for their internal forecasting. It is not as easy … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Consulting, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Mike Linksvayer (middle of the shot) didn’t put on a tie to receive his (deserved) award… and Richard Stallman’s hairdress looks like South Vietnam in the sixties, just after the spraying of Agent Orange and all the bombing.

Posted on March 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse
Posted in Humor | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Last week, nobody knew anything about the American Civics Exchange…

Posted on March 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Thanks to Midas Oracle, now they know: And the number above was just for Tuesday… The web traffic to that MO post will be sustained for one week… It adds up… [UPDATE: 442 pageviews so far...] If you have any … Continue reading →

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Did the CFTC relax its ECPs requirement for eBOTs?

Posted on March 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Contra Chris Masse (who blogged cockily that that would never happened), WeatherBill is now available to any weather-sensitive business, large or small. No $1m net worth required, anymore. Developing… Waiting for a P.R. release from them today [tomorrow, on another … Continue reading →

Posted in Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Hedging & Insurance, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The cable television commentator Larry Kudlow said that although a Senate campaign had been a flattering idea, “it was never a serious proposition.”

Posted on March 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

New York Times – Will CNBC’s Larry Kudlow announce he is running for the Senate by August 1st 2009?

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Nostradamical.com — 3 months later, they are doing fine.

Posted on March 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- Nostradamical is now 3 months into launch and building a loyal following. Its model is different from our prediction exchanges. It contains more social elements. Nostradamical looks like a multi-user blog with the prediction algorithm(s) as a background feature. … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment