What Panos Ipeirotis didnt tell you

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Panos Ipeirotis depicted my activism to blog about the tone of the news article on enterprise prediction markets published by The Economist &#8212-and its implications. The takeaway that his readers will get is that Chris Masse is on caffeine. :-D

The important information that our good doctor Panos did not tell is that Chris Masse is the publisher of 2 websites (CFM since 2003 and Midas Oracle since 2006) whose main purpose is to list and/or excerpt the news articles, opinion pieces and research papers that focus on prediction markets. Since 2003, I have seen them all &#8212-in all stripes and colors.

So, it is not like I am a gullible newbie just out of the egg. I have a certain expertise in assessing any media piece on prediction markets. And the same thing can be said about Niall O&#8217-Connor (regarding the betting industry, more generally).

Chris Masses InterPol file

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Chris Masse .com:

Chris F. Masse is NOT a Fraud

But come on, would saying he is really be libel? Seems like a rather subjective statement to me in the first place. What is the metric for &#8220-fraud-ship&#8221-, anyway?

Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse, of chrisfmasse.com &amp- midasoracle.org, is NOT a fraud. (But he is slightly overweight, and often stinks of elderberries and old coffee.) Styling himself as &#8220-the most forward thinker in the field of prediction markets,&#8221- Chris daily attempts to offer commentary on prediction markets, economics, and related subjects, from his blog, Midas Oracle.

However, as even a casual reader can glean from Mr. Masse&#8217-s writing, he certainly has an axe to grind. Never mind questions as to whether the man might be bi-polar, or why his posts attract so few comments and engender so little discussion&#8230-no, let us concentrate on what Mr. Masse is saying. From the get-go, Chris attempts to drill into the mind of every reader exactly what a prediction market is, and what its uses are. In a few paragraphs located at the top of his blog&#8217-s main page, Mr. Masse attempts to distill his particular views on the utility of prediction markets while simultaneously dissuading any ideas to the contrary, as though all other writing and actual research in the field is a moot point. Only Chris&#8217-s opinions matter, but they must be taken on faith.

And what are Mr. Masse&#8217-s qualifications to make such claims as are replete throughout his writings? He never provides them, conveniently, but this does not stop Chris from criticizing others who have verifiable experience in the &#8220-nitty-gritty&#8221- of prediction markets. Robin Hanson, the &#8220-father of prediction markets&#8221-, is a particular punching-bag favorite, although Chris apparently has a strong aversion to responding to Robin&#8217-s comments when he posts.

Chris, always a master of logic, claims to take conversation seriously, and in a recent post entitled &#8220-It is not about Midas Oracle&#8230- It is about taking part of the conversation about (enterprise) prediction markets on the Web.&#8221- wrote:

  1. If you are an economist, and have nothing to say about the current banking, financial and economic crisis (the worst in our generation), then you don&#8217-t matter anymore.
  2. If you are a prediction market consultant, and have nothing to say about the negative piece from The Economist, then you don&#8217-t matter anymore.

Mr. Masse seems to be a master of the arbitrary, as he has synthesized rationale for obsoleteness based upon reactions to a very short Economist story that did nothing less than report the facts. And obsoleteness according to whom? Mr. Masse, of course.

But perhaps Mr. Masse missed the critical point that the story had nothing negative to state about prediction markets themselves, simply some observations on their adoption. In conclusion, actually, the story contains these two lines:

Yet many pilot projects run so far have shown that junior staff can often be surprisingly good forecasters. Perhaps the best way to find out when prediction markets will finally take off is to ask your employees—using a prediction market.

Chris, that sounds pro-prediction market to me. Or did you perhaps simply need an excuse to take pot-shots at &#8220-economists&#8221- and &#8220-prediction market consultants&#8221- because &#8220-they&#8221- did not share your reaction against fabricated story content that is not there?

Chris Masse gets a vote of no confidence from me. Any further evidence required to diagnose Mr. Masse&#8217-s ineptness in providing a factual discussion of prediction markets can be found at his blog, Midas Oracle, which you can read for yourself. Mr. Masse is obviously working to overcome something, I am just not sure what. Perhaps you could inform us, Chris?

Previously:

Enterprise prediction markets… the next big thing —not.

Opacity versus Openness

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Enterprise prediction markets… the next big thing -not.

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Niall O&#8217-Connor:

A previous Economist article, that I have archived, spoke of how Napster was revolutionising the music industry. Another one, called Betfair a radical upstart. A recent article on Hulu discussed how it was “online videos new model.” By anybody&#8217-s standards, these technologies have unleashed the forces of disintermediation, and affected a paradigmatic shift in the industries in which they operate.

By way of contrast, the Economist article on Prediction Markets states that Koch, one of the biggest users of Prediction markets, asserted that they are a compliment to other forecasting techniques and not a substitute to them. The article aslo raises the issue of cultural barriers that are inhibiting the take up of said Prediction Markets – not least, inertia (etc..).

One can take from the article that Prediction markets are not ground break, not radical, not revolutionising- they are not unleashing the forces of disintermediation. Accordingly, on the evidence presented (”much remains to be done to convince sceptical managers of their value”) the battle is an uphill one. Moreover, one can ask, if the battle was not won during the good times, what is the real chance that it will be won during a recession, when company’s are always more resistent to change.

You guys are all speaking from a position of being laden down with prediction market baggage. Your views are not objective, and one can only hope that you are not collectively suffering from disaster myopia. […]

Niall O&#8217-Connor&#8217-s website

Mechanical Turk grades The Economists news article on enterprise prediction markets

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Panos Ipeirotis:

economist-survey

Well, the average was a 5.8/10, meaning that the average detected sentiment was pretty much neutral with some hints on positivity.

I acknowledge this result, brought to us by research scientist and university professor Panos Ipeirotis&#8230- who, 5 minutes ago, was alerting us on the hard fact that Mechanical Turk is not so much of a reliable tool&#8230-

Previously: Enterprise prediction markets… the next big thing —not.