Monthly Archives: February 2009

HubDub takes home the Gold at the Oscars.

Posted on February 23, 2009 by Jenni Peterson

Well the Oscars have come and gone and although most pundits are chattering about Slumdog’s amazing 8 wins and Hugh Jackman’s dulcet tones, I’m more impressed by Hubdub’s amazing success. Out of the major races, we got EVERY SINGLE ONE … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Entertainment, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, HubDub, Oscars, prediction markets | 25 Comments

MBA Predict

Posted on February 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

MBA Predict by Inkling Markets

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged inkling markets, MBA Predict, prediction markets | Leave a comment

BetFair: The Oscars 2009? We won.

Posted on February 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Mike Robb is quick to roar victory for the quasi-accurate BetFair predictions on the Oscars 2009. PS: I credit the accuracy to both the information aggregation mechanism (BetFair’s prediction exchange) and the BetFair traders.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged BetFair, Oscars 2009, prediction markets | 1 Comment

Robin Hanson is not equipped intellectually to ponder on the biggest banking, financial and economic crisis of our generation.

Posted on February 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: I never learned much macro-econ [macro-economics]; they didn’t respect it at Caltech where I got my Ph.D. So while my econ colleagues blog 24/7 about the macro crisis, I’ve mostly kept quiet.

Posted in Economics | Tagged Economics, macro-economics, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Sean Park didn’t bribe me to post this web link.

Posted on February 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

WeatherBill – New user interface – Check it out. And, of course, they blog. UPDATE: Sunshine Guaranteed or Your Money Back – pdf

Posted in Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Hedging & Insurance | Tagged Hedging, speculating, weather, Weather Bill, WeatherBill | Leave a comment

Accuracy and Efficiency of Prediction Markets

Posted on February 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

To sum up things… And in other words: The relative accuracy of the prediction markets = epsilon and (quite) controversial. The relative efficiency of the prediction markets versus the mass media (not the vertical media) = big (in complicated situations), … Continue reading →