Google Analytics of Midas Oracle .ORG:
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On the other hand, our competitor, the New York Times (which web-hosts Freakonomics), is in bad shape:
I talk about the velocity of the prediction markets… and, all of the sudden, the traffic explodes.
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Daily Archives: February 18, 2009
Do you have a blog?
If yes, you could help by linking to our post:
– The truth about prediction markets
Thanks. Appreciated. I will make up to you.
These bloggers have already linked to it:
– Professor Mike Giberson-
– Professor Andrew Gelman-
– Barry Ritholtz (the #1 Wall Street blogger)-
– JusTrade Blog-
– BetFair Predicts-
– Betting @ BetFair.
Whatever the expectations (whether they will end up being wrong or right), in complicated situations, the prediction markets aggregate them faster than the mass media do.
That’-s my answer to Flubber.
What’-s yours? Mike, Jason, David, Dave, etc.
Velocity is such a potent argument. Why dont we use it more, for Christs sake?
I am re-reading a 2007 scientific article from Region Focus’ Vanessa Sumo:
– Ask The Market – Companies are leading the way in the use of prediction markets. The public sector may soon follow. – (PDF)
Here is what I see on the frontpage:
– “-one or two weeks in advance“-
– “-even up to five weeks in advance“-
Marketing-wise, velocity is a much more potent argument than the argument on accuracy. Who cares about an added accuracy of +2.7% (and that’-s debated)? If any, that’-s peanuts.
You cannot make a case against velocity. Impossible.
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UPDATE: Put the PDF link in the address box of your browser (as opposed to clicking on it, or right-clicking on it).
http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/region_focus/2007/spring/pdf/feature1.pdf
Flubber is partially right.
