Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Monthly Archives: November, 2008

Blah, blah, blah, blogs. Blah, blah, blah, my blog. Blah, blah, blah, the bloggers. Blah, blah, blah, blogging.

An Internet marketing professional:
Today, we publish and consume more content faster than ever before. WordPress has become the new FrontPage. Web sites are now blogs. E-mail and newsletters have been replaced by RSS. Micro-blogging applications such as Twitter have filled the void in between. Today, when new content is created and published, it’s usually done [...]

Are collective intelligence solutions being oversold?

Xpree CEO Mat Fogarty:
Chris,
Management struggles to understand and plan for the future. When forecasts are inaccurate, corporations incur huge costs due to inventory write-offs, stock-outs, misallocated resources or cost of capital. Collective intelligence delivers objective, accurate forecasts in real time, thus saving many millions of dollars for our corporate clients. The solution is not [...]

My open question to Xpree’s Mat Fogarty

Mat, congrats for your expansion.
- Will Jim oversell the predictive power of the enterprise prediction markets?
All the other “business development” directors I see out there are overselling, in my view.
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No more margin trading at InTrade

Sudden decision. [Spot the mistake in the date at the top of that webpage.]
Todd’s not happy.
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Are prediction markets useful?

According to Alan Abramowitz, John Tierney has been “greatly exaggerating the accuracy of the betting markets.” “They follow the polls. That’s it.”
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My comment to Alan Abramowitz and John Tierney:
“They follow the polls. That’s it.”
Yes, they follow the polls. No, that’s not it.
Traders also dig the news of the day and make anticipations about the outcome. [...]

Giving Thanks

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- Thanks to my readers.
- Thanks to InTrade, BetFair, NewsFutures, HubDub, etc.
- Thanks to Robin Hanson, David Pennock, Lance Fortnow, Jason Ruspini, Mike Giberson, David Perry, Adam Siegel, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Nigel Eccles, Chris Hibbert, Panagiotis Ipeirotis, George Tziralis, Eric Zitzewitz, Koleman Strumpf, Mike Linksvayer, etc.
- Thanks to WordPress, FireFox, Google, Wikipedia, etc.
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Andrew Goldberg laments the narrow range of political prediction markets at InTrade.

Yet another blogger who is bound to discover HubDub.
Unlike InTrade, HubDub is universal.
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“Still, as noted, it was a good election for [the] prediction markets and another piece of evidence of their superiority over the pundit[s] (and at least parity with the poll).”

Dixit Nigel Eccles in a comment.
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at least parity with the poll
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I agree with the above.
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their superiority over the pundits
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What documented evidence do you have about that, mister the cocky entrepreneurial Scotsman?
John Tierney linked to that Huffington Post that listed the pundits’ predictions about the total number of electoral votes that each presidential candidate would take. [...]

OPEN WEB AWARDS: The deck is stacked against HubDub.

Mashable put HubDub in the “Social News” category —along with Digg. HubDub will get crashed, of course.
They should have put HubDub in a “prediction markets” category.
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Yet another person outraged by the HubDub prediction markets on deaths and assassinations

Here.
Outraged by that.
Previously.

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