Robin Hanson&#8217-s false good idea: collecting track records.

But his post is the living proof that he is wrong:

• Prediction markets incentivize traders in researching issues (reading the experts&#8217- works), making probability bets, and delivering a collective verdict-
• Experts don&#8217-t like to state publicly their home-made probabilistic predictions &#8212-as his post shows.

And if experts are not used to express scoreable forecasts, then, by essence, you can&#8217-t collect anything. Hence, the superiority of the prediction market method.

Another false good idea from Robin Hanson.

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