Daily Archives: June 4, 2008

EXPIRATIONS: Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana

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Expired prediction markets

InTrade

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
  • Science
  • Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?
  • Mozilla FireFox users, do you have trouble downloading academic papers (as PDF files) from SSRN?
  • “Impact Matrix. Used to collect and gauge the likelihood and business impact of various events in the very long term.”
  • Ends and Means of Prediction Markets — Tom W. Bell Edition
  • How to run enterprise prediction markets… legally

Barack Obama is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic party.

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Cocky HubDub has just expired the contract. InTrade and BetFair did not. InTrade will expire the Democratic candidate contract when the Democratic party declares their nominee at their convention. BetFair does not state anything. Maybe they&#8217-re too shy to tell. :-D

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UPDATE: Read Andrew Sulivan&#8217-s analysis of Hillary Clinton&#8217-s speech.

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UPDATE: NewsFutures did not expired its Democratic candidate contract either.

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UPDATE: Brad Stewart tells us in a comment that Reality Markets did not expire its contract, too.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • No Trades (other than at the start) —-> Not a reliable predictor, as of today
  • How you should read Midas Oracle
  • The best prediction exchanges
  • “There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”
  • Hillary Clinton won’t be on the Democratic ticket. — It’s not going to happen. — N-E-V-E-R. — Not a chance. — Period.
  • Suggestion for WordPress — Subscribers’ Capabilities
  • This is why I said that those who believe that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket are “clueless”.

Question to Caveat Bettor

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Cav,

In light of Robin Hanson&#8217-s latest blah blah blah&#8230-

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Do you really think that a prediction market journalist (or blogger) should disclose his/her event derivative holdings (as you do systematically)?&#8230-

Just a question that crossed my mind.

I was in favor of it before I read Hanson. Now, I have doubts&#8230- (Hanson, be damned. :-D )

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • POLLS VERSUS PREDICTION MARKETS: Justin Wolfers retorts to Bob Erikson.
  • Based on market data from a tiny prediction exchange (IEM, which is much smaller than InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair), a couple of researchers claim that prediction markets do not have superior predictive power. — And, adding salt to injury, they call our prediction market luminaries (Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, etc.)… “naive”.
  • Do the media avoid reporting the bad omens that is sometimes reflected in the prediction markets?
  • BetFair’s brand-new bet matching logic
  • Quizz Of The Day — Monday Morning Edition
  • BEWARE THE BLOGGING ACADEMICS: They are not blogging to inform us —they are blogging to promote themselves.
  • Did Jason Ruspini and friends cash in on huge moves in prices of oil, natural gas, coal and other parts of the energy patch, this semester?