Daily Archives: June 2, 2008

VIDEO – BetFairs Mark Davies croaks like a frog.

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To watch Mark Davies speaking French:

  1. Internet Explorer &#8212-no FireFox.
  2. Latest Flash.
  3. Go to M6 Replay.
  4. Select &#8220-magazines&#8221-.
  5. Scroll on the right to go to &#8220-Enquete Exclusive&#8221-.
  6. Select Sunday, May 1, 2008 &#8212- Paris sportifs: Quand la Mafia s&#8217-en mele&#8230-
  7. Windows Media.
  8. 9:00 into, they talk about Davydenko.
  9. 11:00 into, they show the BetFair HQ.
  10. Mark Davies is introduced as &#8220-the #2&#8243-. And, later on, they mis-translate &#8220-Managing Director&#8221- into &#8220-Directeur General&#8221-, which means &#8220-CEO&#8221- in French. Let&#8217-s hope David Yu won&#8217-t watch that tape. :-D
  11. His French is not superb&#8230- but quite close to. :-D
  12. Explains that, in the Davydenko match, it was the bets that lead the game &#8212-not the other way around. So, BetFair voided all bets.
  13. I am realizing that the phrase &#8220-the prices of the bets&#8221- (&#8221-les prix des paris&#8220-) is not usable. Better to talk about probabilities to the public.
  14. The rest of that news report is devoted to demonstrating, thru innuendos, rumors, unfounded pseudo facts, and mis-reported true facts, that the Mafia is in control of all world sports &#8212-thru world-wide betting.
  15. At the very end, though, one official (from the tennis federation, the ATP, if my memory is correct) says that they cooperate with some betting operators to stop corruption.

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M6 – Enquete Exclusive – Sunday, June 1, 2008 &#8212- Paris sportifs: Quand la Mafia s&#8217-en mele&#8230- &#8211- [Sports bets: When the Mafia gets involved…]

1.6 million French people watched that TV show.

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Bo Cowgills boss = Hal Varian

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UPDATE: Bo tells us: &#8220-Actually, that’s my desk right behind him, in the top picture.&#8221-

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Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06

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Blip.TV –

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • POLLS VERSUS PREDICTION MARKETS: Justin Wolfers retorts to Bob Erikson.
  • Based on market data from a tiny prediction exchange (IEM, which is much smaller than InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair), a couple of researchers claim that prediction markets do not have superior predictive power. — And, adding salt to injury, they call our prediction market luminaries (Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, etc.)… “naive”.
  • Do the media avoid reporting the bad omens that is sometimes reflected in the prediction markets?
  • BetFair’s brand-new bet matching logic
  • Quizz Of The Day — Monday Morning Edition
  • BEWARE THE BLOGGING ACADEMICS: They are not blogging to inform us —they are blogging to promote themselves.
  • Did Jason Ruspini and friends cash in on huge moves in prices of oil, natural gas, coal and other parts of the energy patch, this semester?

PREDICTION MARKETS HAVE ARRIVED: Bloomberg columnist shames Indias government FOR NOT USING prediction markets to forecast demand.

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WOW. This is big.

Andy Mukherjee:

[…] Finally, demand estimation is too important to be left entirely to experts.

Companies such as Google Inc. are harnessing the power of prediction markets &#8212- which gather information from a large number of participants &#8212- to generate useful forecasts.

There&#8217-s no reason why governments can&#8217-t do the same.

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Great idea.

Let&#8217-s shame the 95% of Fortune-500 companies for not using enterprise prediction markets. :-D

  • Shame on you, McDonald&#8217-s, for not using enterprise prediction markets.
  • Shame on you, Nike, for not using enterprise prediction markets.
  • Shame on you, Conquest Capital, for not using enterprise prediction markets.
  • etc. etc. etc. :-D

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Midas Oracle is only 6 times smaller than Fred Wilson’s blog, “A VC”.
  • The best blogs on prediction markets
  • The New Republic profiles the next Vice President of the United States of America —Jim Webb, maybe.
  • No Trades (other than at the start) —-> Not a reliable predictor, as of today
  • How you should read Midas Oracle
  • The best prediction exchanges
  • “There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”