Daily Archives: May 27, 2008

Tasmanias Prime Minister who licenced BetFair Australia departs abruptly.

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Mercury + The Austrlalian

Hello to our readers from Down Under.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • American Enterprise Institute’s Center For Regulatory And Market Studies (Policy Markets)
  • IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
  • Science
  • Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?
  • Mozilla FireFox users, do you have trouble downloading academic papers (as PDF files) from SSRN?
  • “Impact Matrix. Used to collect and gauge the likelihood and business impact of various events in the very long term.”
  • Ends and Means of Prediction Markets — Tom W. Bell Edition

Meet Tom W. Bell, the man who knows the legal difference between excluded commodities and exempt commodities, and the legal difference between contracts and notes -but still cant get himself a gravatar.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • JASON RUSPINI’S CROCKERY: The Brain states forcefully that they are not “event futures”, but “binary options”. Still, as soon as he premieres prediction markets on tax rates at InTrade, he calls them “tax futures” —of course.
  • Tasmania’s Prime Minister who licenced BetFair Australia departs “abruptly”.
  • Got that hardcover book on my desk, thanks to Steve Roman. It’s out in paperback form, today —for small people like you (the readers), who are not famous on the Web, and hence don’t get all the free gigs that big bloggers get for free. (((I pity you.)))
  • Do not pay any attention to Jason Ruspini’s legal ramblings on Midas Oracle. — Do monitor Jason Ruspini’s portfolio of event derivatives, instead.
  • WEB EXCLUSIVE: What Vernon Smith told the CFTC about the social utility of the event derivative markets —the so-called “prediction markets”
  • Will the CFTC agree to license and regulate real-money prediction markets?
  • Who will be the next US Vice President, past January 2009?

Got that hardcover book on my desk, thanks to Steve Roman. Its out in paperback form, today -for small people like you (the readers), who are not famous on the Web, and hence dont get all the free gigs that big bloggers get for free. (((I pity you.)))

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Lawsuit aiming at compelling the office of the United States trade representative to produce a copy of its compensation settlement with the European Union over the United States’ withdrawal of gambling services from the General Agreement on Trade in Services.
  • Iraq War = “not necessary”, “a serious strategic blunder” — US News Media = “complicit enablers” in the manipulation of the public (“the propaganda campaign”) — George W. Bush turned away “from candor and honesty when those qualities were most needed.”
  • JASON RUSPINI’S CROCKERY: The Brain states forcefully that they are not “event futures”, but “binary options”. Still, as soon as he premieres prediction markets on tax rates at InTrade, he calls them “tax futures” —of course.
  • Tasmania’s Prime Minister who licenced BetFair Australia departs “abruptly”.
  • Do not pay any attention to Jason Ruspini’s legal ramblings on Midas Oracle. — Do monitor Jason Ruspini’s portfolio of event derivatives, instead.
  • Meet Tom W. Bell, the man who knows the legal difference between “excluded commodities” and “exempt commodities”, and the legal difference between “contracts” and “notes” —but still can’t get himself a gravatar.
  • WEB EXCLUSIVE: What Vernon Smith told the CFTC about the social utility of the event derivative markets —the so-called “prediction markets”

JASON RUSPINIS CROCKERY: The Brain states forcefully that they are not event futures, but binary options. Still, as soon as he premieres prediction markets on tax rates at InTrade, he calls them tax futures -of course.

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Measured Enthusiasm for Prediction Markets – (PDF file) – by Jason Ruspini.

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My thoughts:

  1. Peter McCluskey thinks they are &#8220-futures&#8221-.
  2. PAM was only extremely marginally about &#8220-terrorism and assassination futures&#8221-.
  3. Even though they don&#8217-t do much more than discounting known information, &#8220-prediction markets&#8221- is not a misnomer, since the term means that each prediction (in the form of an event derivative contract) is traded on a market.
  4. &#8220-Decision-aid markets&#8221-, not &#8220-decision markets&#8221- &#8212-I&#8217-d leave that last denomination for Robin Hanson&#8217-s original idea, when the decision applies automatically, after the trading.
  5. And what was Justin Wolfers&#8217- reasoning? Might we know? (And why did you swallow it?)
  6. Which are the manipulation papers making &#8220-unrealistic assumptions&#8221-? Names, please.
  7. Tax futures are great. But, who else in the world, other than mister Ruspini, believes that they can be fiscal hedging vehicles? (Not doubtful. Just asking. External links, please.)

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Jason Ruspini on the regulation of US event derivative markets:

CFTC-like regulation would save these markets from having to navigate national and state gambling laws, but would come at the cost of flexibility. Some contracts would not be approved for political reasons even if they had demonstrable hedging utility and “economic purpose”.