Daily Archives: April 8, 2008

Launch a prediction market startup for free thanks to Google App Engine.

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Run your web applications on Google&#8217-s infrastructure.

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Matt Cutts:

Google launched App Engine, which lets you write code for a web application, then Google takes care of the scaling/failover/logistics-type issues. You can store your data in a Google Bigtable using the Google File System (GFS). There’s a bunch of App Engine APIs to simplify things like sending email and fetching urls. Your application can authenticate users that are using Google Accounts, so you can avoid the whole “ask your users to create a new account” issue if you want.

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O&#8217-Reilly Radar

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Google App Engine

[Competitor: Amazon AWS]

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YouTube Video

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Bo Cowgill, this is completely crazy.

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UPDATE: Raves from TechCrunch and Silicon Alley Insider.

UPDATE: Google AppEngine – A Second Look

UPDATE: Praxy

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Towards an anti-drugs and anti-corruption body for all sports? – BetFairs proposal…

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No GravatarPlay The Game [I like that website title :-D ]:

Betting industry leader calls for sport world anti-corruption agency

8 April 2008

by Michael Herborn

Mark Davies, managing director of global betting giant Betfair, has called for a world anti-corruption agency for sport. He envisions that the anti-corruption agency would operate along the same lines as the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), perhaps encompassing the role as both global watchdog for financial as well as pharmaceutical corruption of sport. “There isn&#8217-t a body that sits at the top of sport that&#8217-s something we&#8217-d love to see, a world integrity agency that encompasses both drugs and betting and any other form of corruption,” Davies told New Zealand newspaper the Sunday Star Times at the Leaders in Sport conference in Auckland on 4 April 2008. “For me it should be the same body. If a sportsman is trying to corrupt by enhancing his performance by drugs or trying to corrupt by minimising his performance and make money off the back of it, I don&#8217-t see a distinction.” [&#8230-]

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • 50% of our prediction market luminaries have a MacBook.
  • STRAIGHT FROM OUR TRUISM DEPARTMENT: Money buys happiness.
  • Ron Paul (R) and Barney Frank (D) ally together to attack “the practical hurdles of the federal law, known as the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, rather than its legitimacy”.
  • Clicking on the “SPHERE: RELATED CONTENT” button, at the bottom of each Midas Oracle post, will bring you a list of external webspots.
  • FRIGHTENING: Jed Christiansen’s prediction market blog was briefly overtaken by web spammers, who inserted invisible links to their commercial sites so as to game the Google PageRank system.
  • InTrade ditch market-leader Bloomberg for low-cost, second-tier data provider eSignal.
  • Drawing a parallel between our reluctance to seek advice and the experts’ reluctance to take the market-generated probabilistic predictions in an un-discriminating, un-critical fashion

Do BetFair understand the statistical concept of expectation?

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No GravatarGraham &#8220-Sharp&#8221- Minds:

[&#8230-] When I was interviewed by BetFair and they explained to me all of the problems with the multiples operation, most importantly the fact that it is a loss making despite the huge overrounds, I was asked for my opinion. I told them the simple solution was to take the bets on the chin like a traditional bookmaker and keep away from the markets as the bets they placed were likely to be taken by traders that are shrewder than their own, especially in-running where most of the BetFair trading activity actually occurs.

They were horrified at this prospect and were insistent on producing a formula to place the bets into the main BetFair market to reduce the risk as close as possible to zero. I was more horrified that they didn’t understand the statistical concept of expectation.

Discussion here, too.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • 50% of our prediction market luminaries have a MacBook.
  • STRAIGHT FROM OUR TRUISM DEPARTMENT: Money buys happiness.
  • Ron Paul (R) and Barney Frank (D) ally together to attack “the practical hurdles of the federal law, known as the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, rather than its legitimacy”.
  • Clicking on the “SPHERE: RELATED CONTENT” button, at the bottom of each Midas Oracle post, will bring you a list of external webspots.
  • FRIGHTENING: Jed Christiansen’s prediction market blog was briefly overtaken by web spammers, who inserted invisible links to their commercial sites so as to game the Google PageRank system.
  • InTrade ditch market-leader Bloomberg for low-cost, second-tier data provider eSignal.
  • Drawing a parallel between our reluctance to seek advice and the experts’ reluctance to take the market-generated probabilistic predictions in an un-discriminating, un-critical fashion